Top 10 positive news in Asian trade LEADING EXPORTERS OF MERCHANDISE TRADE AND COMMERCIAL SERVICES MERCHANDISE TRADE BY SELECTED GROUPS OF ECONOMIES

This decade will mark the start of the Asian century, showing the region’s expansion in trade and GDP growth.

Global trade has significantly slowed down in 2015 which is ironic because it was the start of significant oil price declines. After recovering from the 20092010 global financial turmoil that started in the US, global exports reached $18.3 trillion in 2011, $19.0 trillion in 2014, but declined to $16.5 trillion in 2015.

Nonetheless, there are some good news in Asian trade which battled this global trend in export decline.

Below is my list of these positive developments.

Vietnam, Hong Kong, and the Philippines did not follow this global trend. Their exports in 2015 were higher than their 2011 levels. For the Philippines, exports reached $58.6 billion in 2015, higher than 2011’s $48.3 billion.

Asian economies remain leading exporters and importers in merchandise or goods trade, led by China, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.

ASEAN countries are important players in global merchandise trade with at least $150 billion in exports. The Philippines is playing a far catch up with Indonesia and Vietnam.

services trade (including revenues from tourism and business process outsourcing (BPO) firms) many Asian economies still remain part of the big- and medium-size players, at par or even larger than the average European economies. The $915-billion revenues in 2015 is for all 28 EU economies.

the ASEAN, the Philippines is a medium-size services exporter while Indonesia did not belong to the top 50 in 2015 ( see Table 1).

some sectors, the Philippines ranked #10 globally in 2015 in the exports of telecommunications, computer, and information with revenues of $3.5 billion, and #6 in exports of computer services with revenues of $3.2 billion.

the economic blocs and free trade areas (FTAs) in the world, ASEAN is the third biggest next to the European Union and North American FTA (NAFTA). They are followed by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), European FTA (EFTA), SAARC Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA), and Mercado Común del Sur (MERCUSOR).

expanded ASEAN + 6 (China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand) under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will easily overtake both the EU and NAFTA in total merchandise exports. Those six partners are huge exporters except New Zealand ( see Table 2).

statement “this is the Asian century” in terms of trade and GDP growth will become true starting this decade. The main factor to sustain this momentum is Asia’s huge and generally young population especially in India, Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam, comprising 1.7 billion people with an average age of only 24-25 years old which is one-half of the average age of Japan and many developed countries in Europe.

statement “If America ( or Europe) turns protectionist, Asia loses” is wrong.

Table 1 Whoever starts serious protectionism is the loser. Free trade creates good will with other countries while expanding the choices and options for local consumers and manufacturers, which expand their productive capacity.

Should Mr. Trump proceed with his campaign promise to ditch the Trans- Pacific Partnership ( TPP), it can be good news for other Asian economies that are outside of the five Asian economies that are part of the TPP. They are expected to suffer some exports decline to big markets of the US, Canada, and Japan due to trade diversion from non- members to TPP members.

Freer trade and fewer restrictions in the movement of goods and people are becoming the norm in emerging and transitioning economies of Asia than in developed Asia, Europe, and America. Excluding intra-EU (28) trade, 2015, in $ billion

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 12 13 15 17 20 21 29

China Extra-EU (28) exports Extra-EU(28) exports United States United States China Japan Japan South Korea India Hong Kong Singapore Canada Switzerland Singapore Hong Kong Taiwan South Korea India Thailand Thailand Taiwan Malaysia Macau Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Philippines Vietnam World World (excl. intra-EU (28))* (excl. intra-EU (28)) * Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export Table 2 2010 and 2015, in $ billion

15,301 5,184 1,964 1,050 662 331 278 349 14,906

2,275 1,985 1,505 625 527 511 408 351 285 267 214 200 162 150 59 13,080 16,482 5,387 2,294 1,163 650 400 334 301 16,204

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 17 18 21 35

World* World* EU (28) EU (28) NAFTA NAFTA ASEAN ASEAN GCC SAPTA EFTA GCC SAPTA EFTA MERCOSUR MERCOSUR WTO WTO members (162) members (162) * Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export. 15,511 5,421 2,682 953 442 350 258 306 15,170 915 690 285 158 155 139 108 104 97 60 56 40 35 28 11 3,670 4In Rank Merchandise Trade Value Rank Commercial Services Value 5Within 6In SOURCE: WTO, WORLD TRADE STATISTICAL REVIEW 2016, TABLES A7 AND A9. 7Of Exporters 2010 2015 Importers 2010 2015 16,725 5,316 3,150 1,091 510 491 333 291 16,387 8An SOURCE: WTO, WORLD TRADE STATISTICAL REVIEW 2016, TABLE A56. 1China, 9The 2Many n 3Five 10The