Full-year 2016 GDP growth target in the bag with 4th quarter estimate

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) expansion likely ranged 6.8-7.1% in 2016’s final quarter, the government’s chief socioeconomic planner told reporters yesterday, putting the official 6-7% full-year growth target in the bag after the first three quarters’ 7.0% average.

“6.8%… 7.1%…,” Ernesto M. Pernia, director- general of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), said on the sidelines of a Philippine Statistics Authority forum in Makati City when asked for his estimate for fourth-quarter GDP growth which is scheduled to be reported on Jan. 26, adding of full-year 2016 prospects: “I hope it’s seven percent.”

Mr. Pernia told reporters last month that he expected full-year 2016 growth to range 6.5-7%, though “closer to 7.0% than 6.5%.”

The NEDA chief ’s full-year estimate compares to the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific’s 7.0%, as well as the 6.8% projection shared by the Asian Development Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Bank.

“The usual growth drivers for 2016 ( are) manufacturing and consumption and investment, ( both) domestic and foreign investment,” said Mr. Pernia.

Asian Institute of Management Professor Emmanuel A. Leyco gave a 6.9% estimate, citing “the catching up by the government on its public spending… pero the biggest factor is household spending supported by remittances of OFWs ( overseas Filipino workers).” —