Broad, strategic thinking needed to liberate traffic gridlock
As far back as the mid1970s, when I first entered the world of development management thinking, I encountered the phrase “extreme primacy of Metro Manila.” As a Fellow of the Development Academy of the Philippines (DAP) I had been listening intently to the mindboggling ideas being shared by the late (Ret. Col.) Candido Filio who had earned his doctorate degree in urban planning from somewhere in Europe. Col. Filio was also an advocate of “futuristic thinking” and I believe was an inspiration for the creation of the Philippine Futuristics Society. Even as early as that era, I had become aware of the need to decentralize access to political power and development resources. Metro Manila was unique in that it was not only the nation’s financial center. It was also, as it continues to be, the government center, the arts and cultural center, the center for higher education, and for advanced technology and big business.
Why is traffic manageable in New York City, which is a global center for finance, culture, tourism and business and is the home of the United Nations Headquarters? Aside from a multilevel public transport system that works, obscenely expensive parking fees, and vertical residences that enable large populations to practically walk to and from work, the United States had the wisdom to locate its capital and government center a few hours away in Washington DC. This is also why life in DC and environs is still relatively congenial.
Metro Manila, the National Capital Region ( NCR) with its conglomeration of cities and municipalities comprises about 15% of total Philippine population, cramped into 2% of the nation’s land area. Although quality of schools in key provincial cities has improved, most of the best colleges and universities are still located in the Metro Manila area. Majority of graduates of these schools seem to end up also working and raising their families in the NCR.
The automotive industry estimates car sales to be growing at over 12%, with enhanced purchasing power and record low bank interest rates. In year 2016, total car sales were estimated at close to 400,000. More than half of these are likely to be traveling through the heavily congested roads of the NCR. Car sales are expected to rise to at least half a million before the year 2020.
Meanwhile, economic productivity and health status of our NCR residents suffer from the gridlock and consequential environmental pollution that victimizes them on the road, actually reducing their life expectancies according to the World Health Organization. The NCR has one of the most polluted air qualities on earth.
Meanwhile, from administration to administration, transport management authorities and their government colleagues fiddle around with operational details and symptomatic relief options such as better train maintenance, better traffic enforcement, rights of way, opening up military camps and private residential villages, One Way and No-U-Turn signs, a traffic academy, etc. We seem to think that tinkering with these operational details will solve the problem. Why can’t they think beyond their noses and look at the prognosis down the road, if this is all they will be doing? Why, we can’t even produce car plates and driver’s licenses on time!
Way back in 1997 when he was running for president, I asked decentralization advocate Lito “Promdi” Osmeña how he would solve the traffic problems of NCR. He had two proposals: reclaim the coast around Laguna Bay by contracting the private sector to dredge the lake and undertake construction of a circumferential road. Deepening the lake would also be good for the fisher folk, because it would allow fish to thrive. Government would not have to spend too much, if at all, since the contractor/s could be paid with part of the reclaimed area which they could develop. I understand that finally, about 20 years later, this idea is being pursued.
Lito Osmeña’s second proposal was to “relocate the capital to Clark and Subic.” The former US military bases already had first class roads and infrastructure, including a world class airport runway. Relocating the national government offices would radically reduce the population of the NCR because not only would the government offices transfer, families of career bureaucrats would move there. Schools, hospitals, malls, and other service facilities would find markets in the new capital region.
If the government pursues these bold, strategic options, then government service facilities such as bullet trains, world class international airports and seaports (Subic is ready for these) could be planned early enough and put in place. It will take a few years to get these done; but the decisions will have to be made now, and no later.
If we delay any further, Metro Manila will literally die from the gridlock and the pollution. President Rodrigo Duterte, withal, seems to be capable of bold, decisive action. Perhaps he can look beyond his obsession with the drug problem, look beyond his nose, and “just do it.”
The Federalism option, if pursued will help decentralize populations; but it seems to me, this has to be viewed beyond mere constitutional change or legislation. To be done well, it needs more time to prepare the bureaucracy, the politicians and the citizenry. If we do not consider the human factor, it can be a big mess. This will be subject of a future column.