FEDERALISM WILL BENEFIT POLITICAL DYNASTIES
Under Duterte, we may be just replaying the same old story of factional struggles.
In fact, President Duterte seems reluctant to confront the oligarchy (except for the unfortunate Bobby Ongpin, whose misfortune was turned into a fortune by Greggy Araneta). He placed a former Globe executive, Rodolfo Salalima in charge of the Department of Information and Communications Technology. He said that he would walk back on his promise to liberalize the sector if the telcos would reduce telephone rates (which they did, but people aren’t using voice calls anymore, but are instead using data to make calls. Data pricing and service quality remain crappy). His government hasn’t given moral or political support to the Philippine Competition Commission, which is trying to oppose the purchase of the SMC-owned spectrum by the telco duopoly. The change of the form of government from unitary to federal, however, may be a different matter where there is no elite consensus. The goal of the change in the form of government may not really be to address the fundamental problems of the Filipino people (which is widespread poverty) and the disempowerment of the outlying regions, but to reorder the political system for the benefit of various factions and family dynasties in the regions. In other words, it’s about how to cut up the pie to accommodate the demands of the various factions in a rent-seeking system.
Proof of this is that the nostrum of federalism isn’t accompanied by a true rural development strategy to tackle poverty in the countryside. President Duterte’s agricultural policy consists of more of the same policy of simply throwing government money into the agricultural sector, which is a recipe for failure.
(In my mind, a genuine revolution must tackle the problem of rural poverty.)
Because President Duterte has politicized the situation by trying to isolate the anti- Marcos and Yellow forces, the new Constitution may be seen as a backdoor through which Arroyo and or Marcos can regain political power and therefore will be opposed by them on those grounds. (There is talk that either former President Arroyo or Bongbong Marcos will become prime minister under the new Federal-Parliamentary system.) Irrespective of the merits and demerits of a federal system, the anti-Marcos and Yellow forces may campaign against the ratification of the new Constitution as a way to repudiate President Duterte and his political allies.
FACTIONAL STRUGGLES IN THE DUTERTE CABINET
President Duterte’s positions on foreign policy can also be understood using this prism of factional struggle. The Yellow or Aquino faction is strongly pro-American, perhaps due to the perception that the US helped usher Marcos out of power.
On the other hand, the Duterte-Arroyo-Marcos alliance may be seen as anti- American in various shades, with Duterte being the most extreme. The Marcos faction is anti-American because the camp of the former strongman sees the US as the mastermind of former President Marcos’s forced exile to Hawaii. Arroyo, on the other hand, tilted to China after leaving the coalition of the willing in Iraq and getting the ire of the US.
In the struggle between the factions, where is the Communist Left in all these? Clearly, the CPP-NPA are opportunists, seeking to make tactical gains from the peace talks. Duterte, on the other hand, sees the peace talks and inviting leftists to his Cabinet as a way to isolate his main political enemy, the Yellow faction. However, despite a deepseated enmity between the Marcos faction and the Communist Left, President Duterte is gambling that the Left needs him more than he needs the Left.
Furthermore, because of the rising opposition by anti-Marcos forces, Duterte, conscious of the need to keep the military to his side, has walked back on his promise to the Left to free all political prisoners. The Left, therefore, is on the horns of a dilemma: continue with its dalliance with President Duterte and gain tactical benefits, or see the Marcos faction, which inflicted the most suffering on its cadres, strengthen and perhaps return to power. (It’s more likely that the Communist Left will swallow its principles because it sees Duterte as a Sukarno whom they can use to infiltrate and control government without a revolution. Already, the Leftist Cabinet members insist on clinging to their posts, despite the administration’s attempt to rehabilitate Marcos and return his faction to power.)
WELFARE PROGRAMS TO INCUR RISKS, CORRUPTION
In his struggle with the Yellow faction, President Duterte is hoping to win public support, consolidate and expand his political power, and isolate the Yellow forces with various programs. These programs, however, are not without risks.
One is the tried and true formula of Philippine demagogic traditional politicians — populist solutions. He has promised to end “endo,” designed to generate populist applause among noisy labor unions and the Left.
The so-called “win-win” compromise formula is a win-win for Big Business monopolists and labor, but not for small and medium-sized business (SMEs) which will bear the brunt of the additional cost.
He has also announced giving away one cavan of rice per Conditional Cash Transfer family through LGUs. However, the program would most probably be marked by political favoritism and corruption.
He has approved a monthly pension increase of P1,000, but to be accompanied by an increase of contribution rates. This so-called compromise will still accelerate the depletion of SSS finances, risking a possible ratings downgrade, especially if collection falls short of targets or the legality of the contribution increase is challenged. Furthermore, the increased contribution will fall heaviest on SMEs.
He’s also going to give away irrigation for free, which will ensure that water, a scarce resource, will be wasted. Two is the drug war. He’s hoping that drug-infested communities will give him public support if they are rid of drug ad- dicts and dealers. However, his method may also be scaring those very same communities. Recent polls show that about 78% of the public express anxiety and worry over the so-called EJK or extrajudicial killings. Also, by encouraging a culture of impunity among the police, he may be empowering them to intensify their nefarious activities.
The third, and to me the most decisive, would be his infrastructure program or as his own people put it, “build, build, build.” It would be the most decisive because Big Business and foreign investors will see whether contracts will be awarded in an open, transparent, and fair way.
However, we are already seeing that Transportation Secretary Art Tugade is being undermined by Duterte’s own political allies. Tugade may yet end up like former DoTC Secretary Ping de Jesus who was replaced by Mar Roxas when political considerations became paramount. The corruption and nonperformance of the DoTC during the time of Mar Roxas and Abaya then contributed to the negative perceptions of the Aquino administration.
PHILIPPINES REMAINS PRONE TO RENT-SEEKING
Despite the rhetoric of President Duterte, the Philippine state remains corrupt and prone to rentseeking. Were it not for the presence of CCTVs in the hotel, the extortion of P50 million from Jack Lam by Bureau of Immigration Commissioners (Duterte’s own fratmates from San Beda) would have gone unreported. Factional struggles are about this kind of rent-seeking. With big money at stake in the infrastructure program, I wouldn’t be surprised if the rent-seeking intensifies.
The rise in global interest rates and failure to pass the revenueraising tax measures in toto could also derail President Duterte’s bold infrastructure program. Political posturing may mean that only revenue- losing measures are passed while painful revenue raising measures are not. Bureaucratic capacity to properly implement huge infrastructure projects poses another constraint.
With President Duterte, I had hoped that we would have a Teddy Roosevelt and the start of the Progressive Era. (In the US, Teddy Roosevelt ushered in trust-busting and the passage of progressive laws between 1890 to 1920, known as the Progressive Era).
I guess this is not to be. There is no revolution. We may be just replaying the same old story of factional struggles.
The fate of the Philippines seems to be that it will have no visionary leader like Lee Kuan Yew or Deng Shao Ping.
As I said before, change in the Philippines will be bottom up. Change will come, but it will be painful step by painful step, and not be led from the top.