US-China tension casualties could span Nike to Lenovo Eric Lam
WITH the arrival of China-bashing Donald Trump as President in the White House, analysts are drawing up shortlists of winners and losers from any eruption of tensions between the world’s top two economies.
It’s still far from clear how plans will shape up under Trump, who on the campaign trail blasted trade deals with China that generated record US deficits. What is clear: China will retaliate against any protectionist steps — not only are there reported contingency plans, but the historical example of measures against Japan when tensions flared in 2012.
Widespread boycotts of American products in China could hit brands including Nike, Inc., General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Tiffany & Co., while US sanctions would put Chinese electronics exporters such as Lenovo Group Ltd. and ZTE Corp. under pressure, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. Domestic competitors stand to gain from diminished commerce.
“Most people I talk to tend not to think a trade war is the basecase scenario — they treat it as a black swan event,” Hao Hong, an analyst at Bocom International Holdings Co. based in Hong Kong, said in a phone interview. “I think the possibility is much larger.”
Trump has pledged to use “every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes” with China, including tariffs. He once broached a tax of 45% on Chinese imports, then denied bringing it up. After the presidential inauguration Jan. 20, the Global Times, a Chinese newspaper run by the Communist Party, said Trump’s speech signaled a “high possibility” of trade frictions.
RISK SCENARIOS
The MSCI China Index could fall by as much as 30% from current levels if the US and China impose 45% tariffs on each other, according to Jonathan Garner, a Morgan Stanley strategist based in Hong Kong. In the case of more modest 5% tariffs, the Chinese index would be little changed from current levels, according to Garner. Last month, Garner was a bull on China shares, seeing the Shanghai Composite rising to as high as 4,400 this year; it closed at about 3,123 on Jan. 20.
Bocom’s Hong expects the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index to quickly fall below 2,800 under a full-blown trade war scenario — about a 10% slide from current levels. The US S&P 500 index is “too bullish” and has gotten ahead of itself since Trump’s November election, Hong said. In December, he said his model projected the Shanghai benchmark would trade this year in a range 500 points higher or lower than 3,300.
From China’s perspective, producers of consumer electronics, apparel and household appliances could be among the biggest victims should trade disputes heat up, thanks to their big revenue exposure to American customers, according to Reto Hess, head of global equity research at Credit Suisse.
Companies including wireless technology firm GoerTek, Inc. and apparel maker Regina Miracle International Holdings Ltd. earn more than 70% of their revenue from the US, the most among stocks in the MSCI China and Hong Kong indices, according to Morgan Stanley.
Semiconductor makers Ambarella, Inc. and Texas Instruments, Inc. lead American firms in the MSCI US index earning most of their sales from China, Morgan Stanley’s Garner said.
If Chinese consumers did boycott US brands — as they did to the Japanese in 2012 over a territorial dispute — domestic producers such as car maker BYD Co. and sportswear maker Anta Sports Products Ltd. would benefit, Credit Suisse’s Hess said.
Foreign, non-American brands could also win market share as a more attractive third alternative. “Chinese consumers might decide to buy a German instead of a US car, or buy an Adidas shirt instead of a Nike shirt,” Hess said.
Overall, US equities have more to lose than their Chinese counterparts in a trade war, at least in the view of Morgan Stanley’s Garner. While almost 10% of companies in the MSCI US index derive at least a tenth of their sales from China, less than 2% of firms in China can say the same about the US, according to Morgan Stanley.
In a “grand bargain” in which the two sides hug instead of butt heads, Garner sees the biggest beneficiaries being Chinese energy, entertainment, technology and tourism companies, along with US telecommunications and semiconductor businesses.
A positive scenario is hard to envisage for those focused on Trump’s warnings on the campaign trail.
“It’s very difficult to see the Trump administration not doing anything,” said David Cui, a Bank of America Corp. strategist based in Singapore who has been a longterm bear on the China market. “If tensions start to build up, most likely the related stocks will get sold off.”