Fiscal policy or not, Yellen says outlook supports raising rates

FEDERAL RESERVE Chair Janet Yellen sounds like she’s on a mission to raise interest rates this year — no matter what President Donald Trump does on tax cuts and spending.

In a clarifying point during Senate questioning on Tuesday, Ms. Yellen said her monetary policy panel doesn’t need to wait for the Trump’s administration’s plans on fiscal stimulus to hike rates.

“We are not basing our judgments about current interest rates on speculation” about fiscal policy, Ms. Yellen told Nevada Republican Senator Dean Heller. She added that the economy’s “solid progress” is what is “driving our policy decisions.”

It’s a subtle but important switch from a year ago, when the Federal Open Market Committee started with a plan for four rate hikes, and was already worrying by March about the state of the global economy. In the end, they hiked a single time, in December.

The committee’s conviction about its plans for three hikes this year boils down to a shifting sense that upside risks this year look as potent as downside risks, if not more. Business sentiment indicators are up, and that could lead to stronger investment. The committee in December forecast that labor markets would slightly overshoot their estimate of full employment, which could put some momentum behind inflation.

“You really have to turn over a lot of stones to find that shadow slack in labor markets,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who said the Fed chair’s comments were consistent with a rate hike in the first half of this year. “For her, it is really about inflation risks” as the unemployment rate heads lower, Mr. Feroli said.

Ms. Yellen also said that the committee “in the coming months” will provide further guidance on how it plans to shrink its $4.5-trillion balance sheet. “I would anticipate a balance sheet that’s substantially smaller than at the current time,” she said in response to a question.

US Treasury securities sold off on her testimony, raising the yield on the government 10-year note to 2.48% from 2.43% the previous day. Probabilities for a March rate increase moved back above 30%.

Yellen’s semiannual report on monetary policy is her first since Trump became president. During the hearing, Yellen addressed a question about her future, saying

THE PHILIPPINE Stock Exchange index (PSEi) extended losses for the second day on Wednesday, ceding 32.54 points or 0.45% to close at 7,174.30 in a session that saw mining companies disclosing developments in the industry’s continuing face off with the Environment secretary.

Miko S. Sayo, trader at Angping & Associates Securities, Inc., said foreign selling continued to drive the market’s decline.

Yesterday saw foreign funds sustain their pull out, as selling persisted to reach P5 billion, outpacing purchases of P4.5 billion. Wednesday’s net selling of P464.82 million, however, was lower than the previous day’s P590.85 million.

All shares retreated by 18.33 points or 0.41% to end 4,356.25.

Except for services, which edged up by 1.47 points or 0.10% to 1,415.01, all other sectoral indices finished lower.

Financials led the decline at 14.86 points or 0.83% to 1,763.79. Industrials followed, giving up 60.87 points or 0.54% to finish at 11,031.62. Mining and oil eased by 52.40 points or 0.43% to close at 11,899.66. Holding firms ceded 28.66 points or 0.39% to 7,228.07 while property gave up 0.57 of a point or 0.01% to finish 3,306.25.

Value turnover improved by 9% to P7.96 billion from the previous day’s P7.30 billion.

Losers continued to outnumber gainers at 108 versus 87, while 47 other issues closed unchanged.

It was a mixed story elsewhere in Asia yesterday, with the Nikkei 225, Topix ( Tokyo), Hang Seng and S& P/ASX200 adding 1.03%, 0.95%, 1.23% and 0.94%, respectively, while the CSI 300 ( Shanghai- Shenzen) and MSCI AC Asia Pacific lost 0.41% and 0.67% respectively.

As expected by 2TradeAsia. com, the online arm of F. Yap Securities, Inc., the market saw a spillover from Tuesday’s sell-off on mining jitters, with the PSEi slipping below 7,200 for the first time in nearly a month, or since Jan. 18’s 7,156.36.

“Optimism over Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s confidence in the US economic growth” failed to provide any lift.

A number of listed miners told the bourse that they had yet to receive any order for suspension or closure of operations a day after Environment Secretary Regina Paz L. Lopez said she was canceling 75 mining contracts to add to 23 others announced two weeks ago. The clarification from mining firms came after the PSE directed them to clarify and comment on Ms. Lopez’s pronouncement. The exchange also said that it was “closely coordinating” with the Department of Environment and Natural Resources on the matter.

The PSE reminded the public to exercise prudence in investment decisions particularly when it comes to mining stocks, saying it “will apprise the investing public of further developments on the matter in order to ensure that full, fair and accurate information are readily available…” —