Philippine political risk rising — BMI
THE ARREST of Senator Leila M. De Lima and the subsequent Senate leadership shake-up last week point to rising political uncertainty in the Philippines from “growing divisions” in government that, in turn, could derail reforms, analysts at BMI Research said.
BMI cited “heightened risk of political instability” in the Philippines, particularly after Ms. De Lima’s arrest for drug- related charges that was followed by a surprise move to boot out her allies from key positions in the Senate.
Malacañang promptly disputed BMI’s assessment, arguing that it does “not mirror the realities on the ground.”
“The arrest of Senator De Lima (after she led a campaign against President Rodrigo R. Duterte) and the dismissal of four other members [from Senate posts], as well as renewed criticism from the Catholic Church are indicative of growing disapproval of the President’s leadership. This could see more political infighting and uncertainty over the coming quarters,” the Fitch unit said in a note released on Monday.
Hence, the Philippines got lower scores in the policy-making process and security threats components of BMI’s short-term political index.
“The ‘policy-making process’ and ‘ security/external threats’ components have been lowered to reflect the growing divisions within the government, disagreement between the government and the Catholic Church, as well as Duterte’s non- adherence to established inter-governmental commitments,” BMI said in its note.
“We have downgraded the Philippine short- term political index score to 63.5 (out of 100) from 64.6 previously to reflect the heightened risk of political instability in the country.”
‘POLITICALLY MOTIVATED’
Ms. De Lima surrendered to the police on Feb. 24 after a regional trial court ordered her arrest for allegedly benefiting from narcotics trade at the New Bilibid Prison during her time as Justice secretary. The offense is non-bailable. Barely a week after her arrest, four of Ms. De Lima’s fellow Liberal Party members were stripped of key positions in the Senate: Senator Franklin M. Drilon was replaced as Senate President ProTempore while Senators Francis N. Pangilinan, Paolo Benigno A. Aquino IV and Ana Theresia Hontiveros- Baraquel lost their chairmanship of some committees.
Debt watcher Fitch Ratings previously flagged political risks as the biggest threat to the country’s outlook, with rising policy uncertainty under Mr. Duterte and in key economies abroad.
BMI said these latest developments — which could be “politically motivated” — add to political tensions seen in the earlier days of the Duterte administration.
To recall, Vice-President Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo — who was not Mr. Duterte’s running mate during the May 2016 elections — resigned from her post as chairperson of the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council last December after she was told to stop attending Cabinet meetings.
Ms. Robredo had been increasingly vocal against the government’s bloody crackdown on narcotics merchants and users
and its decision to allow the burial of the late former dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos at the national cemetery for heroes.
“In our view, the revamp in the leadership of the Senate, combined with the resignation of the Vice-President from her cabinet position in December are likely indicative of growing disapproval with President Duterte’s policies and approach,” the report read, pointing out that these developments could eventually lead to a “disruption in policy formation and enactment.”
Mr. Duterte has ordered a nationwide crackdown on illegal drugs, which unofficial counts have blamed for over 7,000 deaths in the eight months since he took office at noon of June 20 last year.
BMI also flagged revived criticism from the Catholic Church as a concern for the Philippine government, given its strong “influence” as seen in the country’s political history, recalling the religious group’s role in sparking citizen movements that toppled Mr. Marcos in February 1986 as well as former president and now Manila Mayor Joseph Ejercito Estrada in January 2001.
‘WELL-FUNDED PROPAGANDA’
For Malacañang, however, “[t] he analysis of BMI Research that there is a growing disapproval and rising political uncertainty in the Philippines may not mirror the realities on the ground.”
“While there is political noise backed up by a well-orchestrated propaganda machine, the President continues to enjoy high satisfaction, approval and trust ratings; while his support in Congress remains solid,” Presidential Spokesperson Ernesto C. Abella said in a mobile phone message when asked to comment on BMI’s analysis.
“PRRD’s (President Rodrigo R. Duterte) social & political capital remains intact and being invested to advance his nation building agenda, anchored on fair prosperity, well-functioning government and lasting political peace,” he added.
“This report on ‘growing disapproval’ and ‘political uncertainty’ seems to be the result of amplified noise coming from an echo chamber of well-funded propaganda.” — with input from Ian Nicolas P. Cigaral