Finance dep’t estimates March inflation pickup within central bank’s range
THE DEPARTMENT of Finance (DoF) has added to widespread estimates of faster inflation in March, scheduled to be reported today, “on the back of higher food, power and fuel prices.”
The department, in an April 3 bulletin e-mailed to reporters, said headline inflation likely settled at 3.6% in March, picking up from 1.1% a year ago and February’s 3.3% and adding to expectations that the latest pace could be the fastest in more than two years or since November 2014’s 3.7%.
DoF’s estimate is faster than the 3.4% median in BusinessWorld’s poll of economists late last week that, in turn, is the midpoint of the 3-3.8% range given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
DoF’s estimate for March will bring the first quarter’s inflation print to 3.2%,
still below BSP’s forecast of a 3.4% full-year average but within the central bank’s 2-4% target range for 2017.
DoF’s statement quoted Undersecretary and Chief Economist Gil S. Beltran as tracing inflation’s acceleration in March to “base effects,” noting that world oil prices have begun rising from record-low levels after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non- OPEC members agreed late last year to slash overall production by nearly 1.8 million barrels per day within this semester.
The DoF estimated that the year-on-year general price hike of food and non-alcoholic drinks picked up to 4.5% last month from February’s 4.1%, while that of alcoholic drinks and tobacco jumped to 6.5% from 6.0%.
Prices of housing, utilities and fuels are also estimated to have increased by 4.1% from 2.9%.
Clothing and footwear inflation was estimated at 2.9% from February’s 2.8%, while health may have posted 2.8% from 2.6%.
At the same time, price increases of transport likely eased to 1.9% from 2.8%, and those for restaurants & miscellaneous services to 1.8% from 2.1%.
Inflation of furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house (2.3%), recreation and culture ( 1.8%), education ( 1.8%) and communication (0.2%) are expected to remain steady.
Manila Electric Co., the country’s biggest power distributor, raised its basic rate in March by 66 centavos per kilowatt hour due to higher generation charges in line with the regular maintenance shutdown of the Malampaya natural gas facility.
DoF also noted that the average price of diesel in Metro Manila among the “big three” oil firms rose to P31.1 per liter in March from P22.5/ liter a year ago, though it was less than February’s P31.3/ liter in.
Average gasoline price similarly rose to P46/ liter from P37.6/ liter a year ago, even as March’s pump price was less than February’s P47.7/ liter. —