Dutertenomics infrastructure: pipe dream or reality?

The recent unveiling of the ambitious infrastructure program by the most senior of the Duterte Cabinet echoed to me the ambitious program dubbed the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Program proudly introduced by the PNoy Administration early into his administration. Six years and six months after this ballyhooed program, one can say the mountain labored mightily to produce a mouse. It became such a joke among the seasoned observers that the undersecretary leading the charge became known as Ms. Powerpoint. To her credit, this undersecretary soldiered onto the last.

In the end, the Aquino administration barely moved the needle in one of the best opportunities they had to add at least 1-1.5% to our GDP. In true trapo tradition, the infrastructure and equipment projects were concentrated only in the last 24 months of the dying administration, with the eye of seeking election of their favored politicos.

This is likely the same path that Dutertenomics will fall into — UNLESS the following can be demonstrated:

a. Political will to follow through with the projects. The incompetence of the Aquino management style was self- evident at the very outset of the PPP Program. For one, the management of the project was undertaken to novatos who were completely ignorant of the system and later became glorified atchoys and atchays of senior cabinet members and other assorted politicos who wanted to ensure that their fingers were into a potentially lucrative pie. I hope that the Duterte Administration will appoint a powerful bastonero who has his ear and his unrequited support to ensure that meddling fingers do not obstruct progress.

b. Unified coordination among the Duterte cabinet. Massive projects like these will require coordinated efforts among the various Departments — Finance, Environment and Natural Resources, Public Works and so forth. This is where the role of the bastonero comes in. Local politicians will also attempt to get their fingers into the pie by delaying on local permits and so forth. The real experience of Duterte as mayor of Davao will come into play here, as he looks like the type who quickly decides to break logjams in implementation. It is also a positive projection that Duterte’s most trusted were all present in the briefing. From what I can see, the quiet but purposeful Secretary Dominguez seems to be primus inter pares among the Cabinet secretaries, which is what keeps my faith in this administration.

c. Clear lines of financing is another major concern. We must be very careful about the sources of funding as the touted Russian financing could be just another bogeyman. Everybody knows that the Russian economy is not in good shape, only being kept afloat by its massive oil resources. But with worldwide prices of oil heading south, and with its massive military budget, it is unlikely that they will be a source of developmental loans. Chinese developmental loans usually come with stipulations that enhance their strategic capabilities to take over ports and projects as has happened in Myanmar and countries in Africa. In the end, developmental loans from our traditional sources, such as Japan and the IMF may be a better bet.

d. Capability to complete projects before his tenure lapses is another concern. It is imperative for the President to be able to complete his projects before the expiry of his term because of the Filipino political penchant of erasing the memories and projects of their political predecessors. This could be disastrous as projects costing taxpayers in the billions may be abandoned due to the traditional excuses as “contracts unfavorable to the Government” or that they have been tainted by corruption. If he can complete even a third of his ambitious projects before his term expires, then he would have accomplished light years more than his predecessor.

e. Practicality test for the Mega- Projects. While there are many projects subsumed under the Dutertenomics infrastructure program, I hope each one of them has passed a reality check. I am concerned about the Mega-Manila subway project linking Quezon City, Mandaluyong, Pasig and Taguig. All these cities are prone to flooding during strong rains or typhoons and a check of where the subway will snake through will be critical lest the subway turns into a submarine.

While the political bombast of Duterte is already very well known among all observers, particularly his boast to eliminate the drug problem in six months, it is nonetheless un-debatable that he has made an impact on the drug crisis, though admittedly the battle is far from over. The infrastructure program of Duterte is probably less controversial and more laudable, in that if started with determination, could mean significantly reducing our unemployment rate and boosting incomes with the trickle-down effect and the multiplier effect. To my mind, and I was not one of his supporters, if he accomplishes and finishes even half of what he has boasted he would do in infrastructure, he would have done the nation a great service.