Q2 farm growth ‘not remarkably’ faster

FARM PRODUCTION likely continued its turnaround last quarter from a year ago, but the pace was “not remarkably higher” than the first-quarter clip, the state Agriculture chief and an expert said last week.

Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol said in a telephone interview that he expected the sector’s value of production in the second quarter — scheduled to be reported on Aug. 15 — to have posted “higher growth” though only marginally so from 2017’s first three months.

“Ang projection ko on the higher growth: maybe not remarkably higher than the first quarter,” Mr. Piñol said, explaining that his “projection is based on the fact na tumaas ’ yung presyo ng (prices of ) corn, cacao, coffee and others (picked up).”

Value of farm production increased by 5.28% in the first three months of this year, but had dropped by 2.34% in 2016’s second quarter, even as that latter pace signaled the end of the El Niño-induced dry spell that began to make itself felt in 2015’s second quarter.

Rolando T. Dy, executive director of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) Center for Food and Agri-Business, said separately in a mobile phone message that “second quarter could tie first quarter,” with the crops subsector — particularly rice and corn — leading the sector’s drivers that are still recovering from the 2015-2016 El Niño.

Mr. Piñol said farm output this year could grow by even a “steady 6-7%” provided the government facilitates farmers’ “access to credit.” He said he will present to President Rodrigo R. Duterte on June 23 a program that will lend each farming household up to P50,000 without collateral at 6% annual interest. Mr. Piñol said the program will need some P50 billion in initial funding.

UA&P’s Mr. Dy, however, aired a more conservative 4.5-5% projection for overall growth in farm production for 2017.

Projections of sustained farm production growth in the second quarter will have helped buoy overall economic expansion in those three months — to be reported on Aug. 17 — since the sector contributes a 10th to national output.

News last weekend quoted Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia keeping his view that gross domestic product ( GDP) growth crept closer to 7% in the second quarter, an outlook he first aired in May before firstquarter GDP data were released.