New realities for US watchers in Asia

Watching the United States — specifically the White House — is a common pastime of international relations observers. In the past, it had been because decisions made in Washington, DC could reverberate around the world, leading countries and businesses to adjust their strategies to the windows of opportunity that open or shut depending on changes in US policy. While this is no less true today, the US has been especially entertaining since the election of Donald Trump, who has given policy making the air of reality television.

As entertaining as it has been, this change has meant that drawing ideas for the potential of a new US policy for Asia has become more personality-driven than in the immediate years past. More than before, watchers pay more attention to Trump’s personal encounters with foreign leaders, whether with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose leadership has been the subject of Trump’s tweets, or with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who met Trump in Washington just over the weekend.

In my view, this change has happened for a few simple reasons. First, it is because first meetings only happen when new administrations enter office — in the US system, every four or eight years — making them unique occasions. Second, specific to the Trump administration, it is because the details of these meetings (coming from a combination of official communication, leaked read- outs of phone calls, live reporting, or tweets) are more available than before. Third, and most importantly, it is because there are too few major initiatives to discuss, even when such policy shifts may be better subjects for our efforts.

TRADE

Nevertheless, it is still possible to get some insights on policy directions and priorities. Just as Trump and Modi wrapped up their meetings, we can tell that Trump’s focus on trade is still very much on the agenda. Trump raised the importance of the United States lowering its trade deficit with India, specifically that India reduce its barriers to US goods. In tone, however, Trump’s manner still allowed both sides to be effusive in their praise for the future of the US-India partnership. Yet, if policy makers around the globe are hoping to revive the TransPacific Partnership in some form, there is no use pretending that the White House has come around on US trade engagement; deficit-centered scorekeeping is still the order of the day.

DEFENSE

Under Trump, the US has sometimes attempted to map this type of scorekeeping onto other aspects of its relationships — Trump’s speech at the NATO headquarters inauguration being one memorable example. Nevertheless, the US defense leadership has been consistent in using more traditional analytical frames (e.g. the balance of power or the rulesbased order) in expressing their

plans and roles in Asia. Taking their cue, there is no foreseeing a US defense let-up in Asia in the near future. The continually unfolding events in the Korean Peninsula have also ensured that US defense engagement will not take a back seat.

In Southeast Asia, the US has a unique opportunity to enhance its cooperation. As countries in our region have intense interest in curbing the spread of terror and the challenge of radicalization, above and beyond maritime security, there will be continuing demand for international cooperation. Moreover, there is no real substitute for the support of the US or its allies in this domain, making it an especially important window of opportunity for the US to showcase what it can offer. Nevertheless, as different countries have different assessments of their internal threats, the US defense approach may need to be more multifaceted if it wants to use defense engagement as a way to get more states to support its continued presence.

DIPLOMACY

Finally, the many questions over how the US will approach Asia can be traced back to at least one important consideration: the number of vacant posts in the American diplomatic team. At present, the US does not have new ambassadors to important posts in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, nor to Australia or India. In Washington, many officers are still serving in an acting capacity. Until such senior posts are taken up, it is unclear how much their team may be able to do beyond running on auto-pilot.

In maintaining our consistent drive to go beyond the headlines on foreign affairs, the Stratbase ADR Institute welcoming Mr. Walter Lohman for a roundtable discussion on the changes in US policy in Asia on Tuesday, June 27. Mr. Lohman is the Director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, a well-known think tank based in Washington, DC. The Heritage Foundation has been in the spotlight for its relationship with the Trump administration — and for this reason, we have been looking forward to hearing their view on the direction that the White House will take next.

At present, the US does not have new ambassadors to important posts in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, nor to Australia or India.