Preparing for the future
Scenarios may be able to provide us a glimpse of the future but not always how we will react to it.
There is a genre of literature called Science Fiction or, more currently, Speculative Fiction (SF). These stories portray scenarios where social or technological trends can possibly take us years and decades hence. One example is the 1949 classic novel of George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four where autocracy and technology converge in Oceania to come up with a repressive regime dominated by “Big Brother.”
Anticipating the future does not necessarily mean just waiting for events to unfold. Possible outcomes or scenarios are imagined in order to prepare for an appropriate response. The “scenario” is a device intended for planning a play or a movie with particulars of a scene, its characters, how the narrative unfolds, and the happy or unhappy dénouement. The scene setting is a guide on needed action and resources.
Scenarios then are also helpful in business planning, economic projections, and of course politics. Assumptions are made and how these will combine to define the future. The scenario gets more complex as variables are added with possible reactions of the players involved.
Scenario-building is a useful tool for simulating appropriate responses to future developments. It determines the communication plan to take in case certain pending issues are resolved one way or the other. It can apply to such mundane things like a ride-sharing scheme recently suspended or the brokering of influence in getting goods from the ports and into the country. Randomness is usually dismissed as an explanation.
Think tanks use history and culture to construct realistic scenarios. Events are gleaned from the past and applied to the present.
In the last elections, the prospect of a foreign candidate winning the top post exercised many minds. Other comparable scenarios from history were explored. Still, the only case of a foreigner routinely elected to head a sovereign state entails a small country that has only a hundred or so electors (all male) closeted for days to find a suitable candidate so the white smoke can be sent up the chimney. In this particular case, however, everyone is a foreigner.
Scenario-building presumes an understanding of how different variables and factions support or oppose one another, and how they interact. This knowledge of the particular environment allows a credible construction of a set of events to be put in motion with a particular outcome. A good scenarist then must be able to project a series of probable outcomes of current trends.
Scenario-building can be a parlor game for coffee shop habitués and self-proclaimed analysts in academe who grace TV talk shows as guests invited for their insights on events and personalities. Scenario-setting is a close cousin of that other favorite pastime of idle minds who sip coffee late in the morning at some bakeshop and analyze the news behind the news; the puppets and their puppeteers.
Scenarists seem no different from conspiracy theorists. The latter group works backwards to explain the present state of affairs and who are really behind it, even what the next set of developments will likely lead to. Conspiracies employ hidden villains that will bring about an improbable conclusion to everything. Favorite plots of conspiracy theorists include manipulation of election results through the discrediting of the one in charge of the counting, the possible ascendance of a loser, and the chaos that will follow suit. This then requires a regular scenario-setting exercise for all concerned.
“Best case” and “worst case” scenarios are convenient labels for how things will turn out. One side’s best case may be the opposing side’s worst one.
The “best case” scenarios often construct a set of favorable outcomes. It requires little planning, except where to hold the party and who gets promoted afterwards (usually the wrong guy).
More effort is needed for the “worst case” options, and there may be a number of them. This entails the possibility of defeat on all fronts. This is where preparation is most critical. Still, not all disasters can be anticipated. There are still the “black swan” events to consider.
Scenarios for individuals are less complicated. They entail simple goals and binary results. The job is offered or not; the favor is granted or withheld; a proposal is accepted or rejected. A relationship breaks up or limps along. Personal scenarios entail only winning or losing.
Scenarios may be able to provide us a glimpse of the future… but not always how we will react to it.