Agri output in Q3 seen matching Q2; 2017 target within reach

AGRICULTURAL output growth in the third quarter is estimated to have been little changed from the second quarter performance of 6.18%, the Agriculture department said, adding that fourth quarter growth may hit 7%, which will help the government reach its target for 2017.

“The grains [sub]sector will still be the driving sector. It will push the performance of the agri sector, actually. I would assume (the third quarter is) almost the same performance as the second quarter,” Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel F. Piñol told reporters on Monday.

Compared with year-earlier performance, Mr. Piñol’s estimates suggest a pickup from the 2.98% growth recorded in the three months to September 2016.

The Philippine Statistics Authority’s report on farm output during the third quarter is due for release on Nov. 15.

Mr. Piñol said the bird flu outbreak, the first in the Philippines, dragged down farmgate prices for poultry, but “will not really make a dent on the performance of agriculture in the third quarter.”

“It was just a hiccup. And I really believe we have already recovered,” Mr. Piñol said, citing industry reports that farmgate prices have recovered and may rebound to normal levels starting November or December.

As for growth in the three months to December, he cited expectations of a bumper corn harvest during the period, producing growth of as much as 7%, which compares with a 1.11% contraction in the last quarter of 2016.

Should these estimates play out, the agriculture sector will grow 6.16% in 2017, against a contraction of 1.41% in 2016. Such a growth rate would fall within the department’s target band of 6-7% in 2017.

Economists have said agriculture in 2017 is coming off a low base due to a prolonged dry spell that weighed on output well into 2016.

Rolando T. Dy, executive director of the Center for Food and AgriBusiness of the University of Asia & the Pacific, said the Department of Agriculture “will have major challenges” in reaching its targets.

Mr. Dy, also vice-chair of the Management Association of the Philippines’ AgriBusiness and Countryside Development Committee, said in an e-mail on Monday that he expects agriculture output to have grown 4% in the third quarter and forecasts 2.5% for the fourth. —