We’re living in an era when autocratic regimes seem to be enjoying the most relative success, and that too may help spread illiberal ideas.
It has, however, held populist and nationalist movements at bay, the earlier case of Hugo Chavez’s socialist Venezuela aside.
It’s time to admit that the nationalist turn in global politics isn’t mainly about economics or economic failures. Instead, the intellectual and ideological and cultural battles in some countries have led to these new political directions under a wide variety of economic conditions, some of them quite positive.
One obvious explanation for populism and nationalism is that many countries are globalizing with more immigration, trade and foreign investment. It’s a cultural crisis more than an economic one, as citizens see their national identities shifting. Some electorates respond by wanting to turn back the clock or at least hinder its acceleration. That said, I don’t think we yet know why some countries or regions are more shaken than others by these globalizing processes. In Europe, it is often the central and eastern countries, with relatively low immigration levels, that are the most upset about immigration.
The explanation for populism and nationalism may have some nested features, with economic factors still playing a role. If citizens fear for cultural cohesion, relatively small pieces of bad economic news may take on an outsize importance in their minds. Both the subpar economic results and the cultural shifts are taken as signs that the political elites are not to be trusted, and an entry point is created for more radical alternatives. We’re also living in an era when autocratic regimes seem to be enjoying the most relative success, and that too may help spread illiberal ideas.
So the next time you hear material discontent cited as driving electoral results, just remember that economic data are usually interpreted through a cultural lens.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.