THE BUSINESS SECTOR’S HAND IN QUELLING GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

The business sector can force the hand of aggressive states to soften their political and security policies.

Geopolitical threats often cause the business sector enormous uncertainty. The North Korean nuclear threat, the West Philippine Sea dispute, and the Marawi crisis are just examples of issues that have worried business people, who seem to have forgotten the fact that they can play an outsized but quiet role in quelling these tensions, through the most powerful of tools: partnerships and trade.

By intensifying economic interdependence across markets, the business sector can actually force the hand of aggressive states to soften their political and security policies. When there are strong economic ties that can be jeopardized by geopolitical tensions, leaders will think hard before undertaking measures that can put their economy on the line. This is why partnerships, more than ever, need to be solidified not only between the public and private sectors, but among and between economies within and outside Asia.

Let’s look at the South China Sea issue, which strained PhilippineChina relations, especially when former Philippine president Aquino brought China to the International Arbitration Court, which ruled in favor of the Philippines. As a result, Chinese tourists were banned from traveling to the Philippines and trade relations declined, causing great losses to the business sector. But these all changed when President Duterte, apparently recognizing the economic impact of icy Philippine-China relations, showed his eagerness to forego the issue and establish warm relations with China. Not surprisingly, when he went on a state visit to China last year, he was given a grandiose welcome. From then on, Chinese tourists began to pour back to the Philippines, the ban on the importation of Philippine bananas was lifted, and Chinese infrastructure projects stopped by the previous administration are now back on track. Chinese financing is also pouring in.

The warming of relations and strengthening of economic ties eventually led China to start talks with ASEAN on a Code of Conduct on the West Philippine Sea/ South China Sea. This would, in the long run, help ensure peace and stability and minimize geopolitical tension in the region.

Indeed, there is much that the business sector can do, not only in dispelling geopolitical tensions, but in fighting terrorism as well. Often, the seeds of terrorism are sowed in communities where poverty is rife, and where people are uneducated. This is exactly what happened in Marawi City in the southern Philippines, where ISIS has tried to establish a foothold. Even though the fighting had ended, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the southern Philippine island of Mindanao are particularly vulnerable. We have porous borders and people are historically and culturally linked, having been trading with each other for centuries. Even today, that link thrives. In fact, for those in Maguindanao, it is easier to get radio and TV channels from Malaysia and Indonesia rather than Manila.

To prevent the resurrection of terrorism and prevent further radicalization, different stakeholders must work together to understand the real reasons behind it, and invest resources to do so. Only the business sector’s increased presence and investments can push development in the area, which is sustainable and gives people dignity.