Stocks try a tentative bounce

ASIAN SHARE MARKETS found a semblance of calm on Monday as S&P futures extended their bounce, though global investors were still fretting about the risks from looming US inflation data after last week’s sharp sell-off. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan crept up one percent.

SYDNEY — Asian share markets found a semblance of calm on Monday as S&P futures extended their bounce, though global investors were still fretting about the risks from looming US inflation data after last week’s sharp sell-off.

MSCI’s broadest index of AsiaPacific shares outside Japan crept up 1%, having suffered a 7.3% drubbing last week.

Both South Korea and China gained 1.2%, while Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday.

E- Mini futures for the S& P 500 rose 0.60%, adding to a late bounce on Friday. European bourses were expected to open with solid gains, with futures for the London FTSE already up 1.4%.

Yet a relatively sharp 14tick drop in Treasury bond futures suggested it was too early to sound an all-clear on volatility.

“A massive buildup in market leverage has been partially unwound in the blink of an eye and morphed into something far more broad- based,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at broker IG.

“One could argue that it is the US bond market that is the driving force, and will remain so through this coming week.”

Particularly challenging will be US consumer price data on Wednesday given that it was fears of faster inflation, and thus more aggressive rate rises, that triggered the global rout in the first place.

Median forecasts are for consumer price inflation to slow a little to 1.9% in January from a year earlier, mainly due to the base effect of a high reading in January 2017, while the core measure is seen ticking down to 1.7%.

A result in line with or below expectations would likely be a big relief, while anything higher could well spook investors, lift bond yields and batter stocks.

Aziz Sunderji, an economist at Barclays, suspects the inflation scare will prove to be transitory.

“Tight jobs markets will pressure wages upwards, but technology, automation, and globalization are important — and slow moving — forces acting in the opposite direction,” Mr. Sunderji argued in a note to clients. “Paradigms don’t shift on a dime. In our view, the recent market turmoil is a bump in the road, not a wholesale change of direction.”

But what a bump it was. The benchmark S& P 500 fell 5.2% last week, its biggest decline since January 2016. Ninety-six S&P 500 stocks were down 20% or more from their one-year highs, according to Thomson Reuters data.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s highflying shares shed almost 10% for the week, while Japan lost 8.1% and South Korea 6.4%.

The pivotal gauge of S&P 500 volatility, the VIX, remained relatively elevated at 29%.

Yields on US 10-year Treasury paper touched a four-year top of 2.885%, moving ever further above the S& P 500’s dividend yield of 2.34%.

The ascent of yields had offered some support to the US dollar last week, but was proving of limited help on Monday as speculators returned to short the currency.

The euro clawed back 0.50% to $1.2288, after losing 1.8% last week, while the dollar eased 0.40% on a basket of currencies to stand at 90.118. —