Renewables could take up to 60% share with carbon tax, subsidies
RENEWABLE SOURCES can supply a majority of the country’s power requirements by 2040 if the government can implement alternative energy development strategies, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
The institute, which assessed the feasibility of various policy scenarios, found that the imposition of carbon taxes and subsidies for renewable power will boost the share of renewable energy to as much as 60% by 2040.
The diversification of the energy mix will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 50% at a long-term cost that “is not higher than maintaining current high levels of dependency on fossil fuels,” the institute said.
“The Philippines’ current energy supply mix must be diversified to minimize import dependency on fossil fuels and meet the country’s energy needs,” Md. Alam Hossain Mondal, a researcher at IFPRI and lead author of the study, was quoted in a statement as saying.
“Without diversification, fossil fuel dependency will grow sharply, by an average rate of 7% per year, and CO2 emissions could mount from 43 million tons in 2014 to 144 million tons by 2040,” he added.
Imposing a $10 tax per ton of carbon emitted by 2020 and an additional $10 each decade can bring down power generated by coal-based energy from 2,243 terawatt hours (TWh) under the current trajectory to 1,553 TWh by 2040.
In another scenario, the government could provide subsidies ranging from three to six centavos per kilowatt-hour that will add over 1,000 TWh to the renewable power sector during 2014-2040, which may produce a 35% drop in coal-based power usage.
The carbon tax and renewables subsidy scenarios would lead to a decrease in the share of energy generated by coal-based power plants from about 32% in 2014 to 20% and 17% by 2040, respectively.
Developing energy generation based on new, renewable sources would entail some costs, but researchers noted that those costs are outweighed by the benefits of diversification and reduced greenhouse gases.
The carbon-tax model would lead to “marginal” increases in electricity prices and subsidizing renewables would require an investment of $15.6 billion.