Business economists worried Trump tariffs will harm US — survey

WASHINGTON — Business economists overwhelmingly worry that President Donald Trump’s trade wars will harm the US economy, according to a survey released Monday.

The Trump administration on Thursday is due to impose its latest round of punitive tariffs on China, putting 25% duties on another $16 billion in imports, with Beijing poised to retaliate dollar-for-dollar.

The twice-yearly survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) also found respondents were split on December’s sweeping tax cuts, but agreed Congress should do more to shrink the expanding budget deficit.

NABE Vice-President Kevin Swift said more than 90% of the 251 economists surveyed said the tariffs and threats of tariffs had “unfavorable consequential impacts.”

“Panelists also expect unfavorable consequential impacts should the United States withdraw from NAFTA,” Mr. Swift said in a statement, referring to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Washington, Ottawa and Mexico City began talks a year ago to revise the 24-year-old trade pact, which Mr. Trump has threatened to scrap should negotiators fail to reach an acceptable deal.

Officials have become more optimistic in recent days that they could finalize a NAFTA rewrite by the end of the year.

Some companies across the United States have blamed the tariffs for layoffs, squeezed profit margins and possible bankruptcies.

Lawmakers in Mr. Trump’s own Republican party have expressed outrage about the multi-front trade conflicts and warned of long-term damage to the economy.

But White House officials say the American economy is more than robust enough to endure the conflict, which they believe will ultimately result in more equitable trade that reduces the US trade deficit.

A majority of those surveyed by NABE approved of December’s corporate tax reductions but only a small share favored the changes for individuals, which Democrats have criticized as unduly favorable to the wealthy.

More than 80% believed current fiscal policy would expand the budget deficit as a share of GDP, and agreed Congress should work to reduce it.

Large majorities also favored fighting climate change and combating income inequality but were split on how to achieve the latter goal, according to the report.

According to the latest NABE survey, 60% of respondents believed economic policy should do more to combat climate change.

In addition, 74% said economic policy should do more to combat income inequality but respondents were divided on the best means of doing this: 47% supported more education to improve worker productivity, while 33% favored more progressive taxation. —