Vietnam fostering ties with the Philippines amid rapprochement with China

In August 2018, President Duterte conveyed to his countrymen that he expected China would be fair on the South China Sea dispute and that they should accept Beijing as a good neighbor. He told his fellow Filipinos: “I am sure that in the end, China will be fair and the equity will be distributed.” He predicted that “in the days to come, we would realize that China…is really a good neighbor.”

His (misplaced) good faith on China reflects his administration’s appeasement policy on the Asian power. President Duterte’s foreign policy pronouncements and actions are directed at undoing former president Benigno Aquino III’s agenda of balancing China’s extensive claim in the South China Sea. He distances the Philippines from its long-standing treaty ally and gravitates toward an emergent regional power bent on effecting a territorial reconfiguration in Asia. His foreign policy is aimed at appeasing China in sharp contrast to his predecessor’s balancing strategy. This stance is taken to earn China goodwill so that the Philippines could avail itself of the enormous Chinese resources under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to finance the country’s major infrastructure projects.

From his administration’s calculation, the Philippines will benefit from the BRI particularly in the revival of the maritime silk route, as it dovetails with its plan for a massive infrastructure buildup. Its present scheme of sustained and inclusive economic growth is predicated on an unprecedented infrastructure program that entails some P8.4 trillion ($17 billion) over the next five years. The Duterte administration is eyeing a reasonable portion of the estimated $1 trillion that China will invest in infrastructure projects in 60 countries to develop land and maritime routes following the old Silk Road network that once linked China to Central Asia and Europe. Given this prospective economic windfall, the current administration believes that its appeasement policy toward China is worth pursuing.