Predictions 2021

The Global Priorities Project was a part of The Future of Humanity Institute research center of the University of Oxford. In their report, “Global Catastrophic Risks 2016,” they assessed the biggest “global catastrophic risks” that had the highest likelihood over the next five years. These, in order of possibility, were a Natural Pandemic, a Nuclear War, and an Engineered Pandemic.

American baseball legend Casey Stengel once said, “never make predictions, especially about the future.” Stengel also said, “You have to go broke three times to learn how to make a living.” With those two thoughts, I try not to make predictions as I have never made any money predicting the future.

The moment you make a “prediction,” you assume that you will be accurate and your actions are geared to being right. It is hard to adjust to changing realities when you know you are not wrong about what is coming next.

However, there is nothing wrong—or costly—about looking at what other people predict for the future. Note that a “forecast” is to calculate some future event or condition as a result of analysis of available pertinent data. A “prediction” is only sometimes based on facts or evidence.

The go-to person for predictions in the 20th and 21st centuries has been Michel de Nostredame (Nostradamus)

reaching a cult-like if not religious status. After an unsuccessful time studying to be a physician and a name change, he married a rich widow and started dabbling in astrology for wealthy patrons, including Catherine de’ Medici.

The Daily Express reports that after analyzing texts from French forecasters, a “horoscope” web site says next year could see a zombie apocalypse, with a virus unleashed by a Russian scientist, the rise of the living dead. Nostradamus: “Few young people: half-dead to give a start. Dead through spite, he will cause the others to shine. The Great One to be no more, all the world to end.”

I do not have a clue what that all means. But I do know this. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a page called “Zombie Preparedness.” CDC says that the purpose is a fun way “to reach and engage a wide variety of audiences on all hazards preparedness.” A likely story. And remember “Coincidence” and “Conspiracy” both begin with the letter “C.”

Turning to analysis more rooted in the 21st century, as Yoda once said, “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.” Macroeconomic forecasts are predicated on assumptions about the pandemic. Therefore, this is like trying to predict the weather from deep inside a dark cave on Mt. Makiling. Good luck.

Consulting firm Pricewaterhousecoopers said on January 8: “Oil price to remain below $60bbl but likely to pick in second half of year.” Unfortunately, Brent crude is currently trading at $67.

The consensus is that “China will have a strong 2021.” Compared to 2020, every country will have a strong 2021. But will “2021’s recovery be led by China” as European credit ratings company Scope Group says? UBS, the investment banking firm, said in early January that “economic activity in China has already largely normalized.”

But that does not necessarily mean a strong global economic recovery. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in February 2021, the lowest since May last year and below market consensus of 51.5. China will not produce goods if there is no strong foreign buying.

Looking forward is always interesting. But looking backward is when the game gets real.

The Global Priorities Project was a part of The Future of Humanity Institute research center of the University of Oxford. In their report, “Global Catastrophic Risks 2016,” they assessed the biggest “global catastrophic risks” that had the

highest likelihood over the next five years. These, in order of possibility, were a Natural Pandemic, a Nuclear War, and an Engineered Pandemic.