‘Plants on extended outage to limit Luzon power supply’

Apower shortage in Luzon looms mainly due to thin supply during the hot dry season until August, the National Grid Corporation of the philippines (NGCP) warned.

“Thin operating margin is forecasted in the Luzon grid from April to August 2021 due to multiple power plants on extended outage, thereby providing limited power supply. Technical limitations brought about by the pandemic such as delay in delivery of materials or spare parts, temporary work stoppage, and travel restrictions were stated as some of the reasons for the plants’ extended outages,” said NGCP.

With this, the grid operator is asking industry stakeholders to intervene to avert an impending power supply shortage.

NGCP maintains an annual Grid Operating and Maintenance Program

(GOMP) which schedules the preventive maintenance of power plants, taking into consideration the needed supply vis-a-vis projected demand.

“We continue to urge the authorities to look into this impending power situation in Luzon during this summer season. As the transmission service provider, NGCP can only guarantee the dispatch of all and any available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” NGCP said.

The projected shortage may not occur if the forecasted peak demand for this year will not be realized as a result of the quarantine restrictions placed in several parts of the country, particularly in Metro Manila which is the load center of the Luzon grid, and assuming no further plant outages will occur during the period.

Luzon peak demand is seen to shoot up to 11,841megawatts (MW) in May, higher than the actual 2020 peak load of 11,103MW, which occurred last March 9, 2020.

For Visayas and Mindanao, peak demand for both regions occurred in January 2020, and not during the usual months of November or December, mainly due to the effect of the pandemic. Visayas peak demand is seen to hit 2,394MW from 2,201MW last year. For Mindanao, peak demand is estimated at 2,098MW from 1,977MW.

The Luzon grid needs around 4 percent of the peak demand, or around 475MW in regulating power to stabilize the grid. It also needs to maintain power equivalent to the largest plant online of about 647MW as contingency power to support the grid in case of an emergency power plant shutdown. Once the net operating margin falls below these numbers, NGCP will issue grid alert notices. To certain conditions, this would mean implementation of manual load dropping or rotating power interruptions to protect the integrity of the power grid.

In line with this, NGCP also appeals to the public to use electricity efficiently and help prevent any occurrence of power interruptions due to the lean supply especially in the summer months.

The Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), for its part, said it continues to work with the rest of the energy sector to monitor the power supply situation, especially during summer, and to make the necessary preparations, as well.

The Luzon Grid has been on “White” status, indicating that there is adequate reserve in the grid. This, despite the almost 1,000MW increase in grid demand from February to March due to power plant outage incidents.

In March this year, the capacity on outage averaged 3,400MW versus around 2,000MW only in March 2020.