Japan’s Kishida risks political fight with vow to take up Abe’s legacy

THREE days after Shinzo Abe’s murder, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed to honor his legacy by taking up a cause that had eluded the late former premier: Revising the country’s pacifist constitution. Minutes later, Kishida was explaining how hard that might be.

Successive leaders, including Abe, have failed to overcome the legal and political hurdles required to amend the founding document and legitimize the existence of Japan’s military. Any change to the document, which was drafted by the US during its postwar occupation, is likely years away, even though Kishida’s coalition won enough seats Sunday to start the process.

Abe, 67, was fatally shot at close range July 8 while making a campaign speech, an attack that robbed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of its most prominent advocate for changing the constitution. his death renewed attention to other Abe policy priorities, such as maintaining an ultra-easy monetary policy, strengthening national defense and restarting nuclear plants idled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

That, plus Kishida’s strong election showing, presents him with a three-year window to pursue his own agenda of making capitalism fairer and greener. It also gives him time, if he so chooses, to gradually ween the country off of some of his predecessor’s “Abenomics” policies.

Changing the constitution would likely be more fraught. While proponents argue an amendment would assert Japan’s independence and shore up its security, the idea has long been opposed at home and abroad by those concerned about Japan’s imperial expansion in run-up to and during World War Two.

“I’m pessimistic about the chances for constitutional reform,” said Brad Glosserman, deputy director of the Center for Rule-making Strategies at Tama University. “It’s one thing to be able to do that when Abe’s in the wings pushing for that agenda, but he’s gone now and they’ve lost that motivating force.”

Revising the document requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament to approve a proposal that must then pass a national referendum. Kishida also noted a consensus must first be forged among lawmakers, who have broad disagreements over how exactly to change the document and its pacifist Article 9.

“It’s not just two-thirds approving of the idea of revision— two-thirds must agree to the actual content,” Kishida told reporters after the election.

The premier said he would aim to get a proposal made as soon as possible and encourage debate in the autumn. That effort has been buoyed not only by the outpouring for Abe, but concern over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some 58 percent of respondents told a Yomiuri newspaper poll this week that they had positive expectations for a debate over changing the constitution.