No chance for a COC in South China Sea?

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. last month welcomed Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who conveyed President Xi Jinping’s cordial greetings to the President, “expecting that the two heads of state will chart the course and provide strategic guidance for bilateral relations.” Beijing is seeking a “new golden era” in diplomatic relations despite an unresolved territorial dispute in the South China Sea.

The Chinese top envoy said China-philippines relations are at a new starting point and China is ready to work with the Philippines to keep the general direction of friendship and cooperation between the two countries.

As China pushes for the upgrading of bilateral relations with the Philippines, pundits said it should have a dialogue with all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to finally come out with the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. Of the 10 Asean members, five are claiming parts of the South China Sea—the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. China, on the other hand, claims the entire South China Sea as its own.

Negotiations to have a set of rules of engagement in the South China Sea have been on the table between Asean and China for more than 10 years now, after foreign ministers signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in 2002. The declaration pledged to peacefully settle their differences and “exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability.”

From the Associated Press: “The Chinese military has become significantly more aggressive and dangerous over the past five years, the top US military officer said during a trip to the Indo-pacific that included a stop Sunday in Indonesia. US Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the number of intercepts by Chinese aircraft and ships in the Pacific region with US and other partner forces has increased significantly over that time, and the number of unsafe interactions has risen by similar proportions.”

“The message is the Chinese military, in the air and at sea, have become significantly and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region,” the AP quoted Milley as saying. His comments came as the US redoubles efforts to strengthen its relationships with Pacific nations as a counterbalance to China, which is trying to expand its presence and influence in the region.

China has been asserting maritime jurisdiction over the South China Sea because it is a major trade conduit where one-third of the world’s shipping occurs, not to mention its wealth of resources. The US Energy Information Administration estimates the South China Sea contains approximately 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves.

Will China and Asean succeed in hammering out a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea?

China has repeatedly said it wants to negotiate bilaterally. It gave no reason why, but pundits said “so that it can bully others into submission.”

The Diplomat said: “But it would be strange indeed if Beijing really thought that Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, or Brunei would be willing to sit down at a negotiating table merely to accept surrender terms. Presumably, Beijing thinks there must be a contract zone of some kind. What might that be?”

The Diplomat added: “Negotiation is the art of finding a quid pro quo, not winning a debate. And if Chinese sovereignty is indisputable, what is there to negotiate about? Is Beijing willing to give some up? If, as most analysts believe, the regime is as petrified of rising nationalist sentiment as it appears to be (this seems, after all, to be one of the main reasons that Beijing has been trying to undermine the Philippines arbitration case), then how could it possibly cede ground at a negotiating table without triggering a domestic backlash?”

From all indications, there’s no chance for Asean and China to have a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. If China truly wishes to settle territorial disputes, it can either put its confidence in its claims to the test in appropriate judicial fora, or it can offer rival claimants acceptable terms, which would almost certainly require territorial concessions. As The Diplomat concluded, “At present, both seem highly unlikely. Meanwhile, tensions continue to rise. Fasten your seatbelts.”