Biz, consumer sentiments weaken further in Q4 2022

ELEVATED inflation and peso depreciation, among others, dampened sentiments of both consumers and businesses in the last quarter of the year.

In a briefing last Friday, Senior Director Redentor Paolo Alegre Jr. of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ Department of Economic Statistics said the confidence index (CI) for the current quarter’s consumer expectation survey (CES) slipped further to -14.6 percent from the earlier three month’s -12.9 percent.

By component indicator, results of the CES performed from October 1 to 13 showed that the index for economic condition slipped further to -22 percent, so did for family income to -7.4 percent, while the family financial situation improved to -14.3 percent.

In terms of economic indicators, consumer-respondents consider improvements in the inflation and interest rates, but see further weakening of the peso against the US dollar and unemployment rate for indicators of the current quarter, and those of the next 12 months.

Alegre said weaker consumer confidence in the country during the quarter is similar to those in Australia, South Korea and Taiwan.

Relatively, CI for the business expectations survey (BES) declined for the second consecutive quarter: from 26.1 percent in the previous three months, to 23.9 percent.

The drop was traced to higher inf lation, peso depreciation, decline in sales and demand, and rising cost of production inputs.

BES respondents see depreciation of the peso against the US dollar, but deem the peso-borrowing rate and inflation to further rise until the next 12 months.

Results of the survey reveal that respondents expect inflation to breach the government’s 2-percent to 4-percent target band until next year.

Respondents forecast inflation to average at 6.2 percent this quarter, 6.1 percent for the next quarter, and 5.9 percent for the next 12 months.