Shielded by Russia and China, Myanmar becomes more brutal

WHEN Myanmar carried out the death penalty for the first time in three decades by executing four activists in July, China and Russia stayed silent while the US and its allies condemned the junta. Now the regime is on the verge of doing it again.

Seven university students were sentenced to death in November by a secretive military court for their alleged involvement in the shooting of a retired military officer, and their punishment could come any time.

They’re among more than 130 people put on death row since the junta seized control in a coup on February 1, 2021 and deposed former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose jail term has now been extended to 33 years.

The military has used increasingly brutal tactics to subdue its enemies—even as it further entrenches Myanmar as a pariah state abroad. A rare United Nations Security Council resolution last month called for an end to violence and the release of all political prisoners.

But with China, Russia and India abstaining from the UN vote, it’s unlikely to have much effect, while the junta sees regimes from Iran to North Korea defying international sanctions and testing the will of world powers.

“With India on your side, with China not your enemy—a bit upset with what’s happened, but clearly not out to get Myanmar, with Russia as a strong backer, the world’s looked like a comfortable enough place,” said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser with the International Crisis Group.

Western sanctions targeting the coup leaders and related business entities, as well as an investor exodus, have harmed the junta’s finances. But while it presides over an economy in disarray, it retains control of vast economic interests, including lucrative natural gas exports.

Myanmar’s armed groups, meanwhile, remain divided, with different factions fighting across the country. International support has been elusive, with Western aid heading to Ukraine, and diplomatic efforts ineffective.

Major General Zaw Min Tun, lead spokesman for Myanmar’s ruling State Administration Council, did not respond to requests to comment.

“The junta places little value on international consensus or external pressure,” said Hunter Marston, an adjunct research fellow at La Trobe University in Melbourne who has followed developments in Southeast Asia since 2007. “It’s clearly cratered the economy and sees little reason to change course so long as no country is sending in troops to stop it.”

Solid ties

THE looming executions point to a regime unable to see beyond immediate challenges as it struggles to hold territory against supporters of Suu Kyi and ethnic armed groups. While the junta oversees key cities, it’s retained stable control of just 17 percent of the country’s total land area, according to a group of Myanmar experts.

It’s increasingly turned to air strikes to try and secure ground. In October, the US and European nations accused it of inflicting “extraordinary harm” on civilians after killing more than 60 people in an air attack on a concert organized by ethnic rebels.

The regime has also failed to stabilize an economy that contracted 18 percent last year and is now seeing soaring inflation, a weakening currency and shrinking foreign-currency reserves. Myanmar approved foreign investment worth just $1.46 billion in the first eight months in 2022, a 56.4 percent year-on-year decline.

That’s where China and Russia have become significantly important to the junta.

China remains Myanmar’s largest trading partner, and continues to play a key part in its economic development. When China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar earlier this year he said the relationship remained “rock solid and unbreakable,” and praised cooperation on projects such as the China-myanmar Economic Corridor.

What isn’t clear is how much of this work is progressing. Government data on foreign investment show less than $100 million coming from China so far, with Singapore topping the list of foreign investors.

Military chief Min Aung Hlaing has increasingly turned to Russia for support, visiting the country at least twice in 2022 and hailing Vladimir Putin as the “leader of the world.” The two sides have since inked several economic pacts in an effort to bolster ties.

Russia’s Ambassador to Myanmar, Nikolay Listopadov, told Bloomberg News sanctions and international pressure will only lead to a worsening of the crisis. He said Russia “never gets involved in domestic affairs” but supports the release of political prisoners and dialog among all stakeholders.

With Russia and China continuing to show support, Myanmar’s military will see little reason to back down from a level of brutality that has surpassed that of previous regimes.

“China and Russia only care about their business rather than human rights and democracy,” said Soe Thura Tun, the shadow National Unity Government’s Minister of Electricity and Energy. “They discussed with the junta to ensure they become early birds for profit-making projects in the long term.”

Deposed leader

Suu Kyi, 77, has seen her jail term extended to 33 years after the conclusion of an 18-month long series of trials. A special court recently found her guilty of five charges of corruption during her time in government, adding 7 more years to her sentence.

Since the coup that toppled Suu Kyi’s government, and led to the deaths of more than 2,600 people, the US has led efforts to punish the regime. But it is wary of measures that could harm the nation’s 55 million population, and the Western response has largely been confined to humanitarian assistance, targeted financial sanctions and working with Myanmar’s neighbors in Southeast Asia to pressure the junta.

America’s biggest security partners in the region, including Australia, have refused to impose sanctions, choosing instead to keep lines of communication open. Japan retains strong business links, while India has known ties to the junta. In November, Myanmar released four foreign prisoners, including Suu Kyi’s former adviser—australian economist Sean Turnell, and a Japanese filmmaker, as part of an amnesty.

“That’s probably something that we see as being the end result of diplomatic efforts by those governments,” said Moe Thuzar, a fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-YUSOF Ishak Institute. “But the death sentences that have been passed are on Burmese nationals so we need to be aware of that as well.”