New conflict may engulf Philippines

The hullabaloo over the supposed communication link between President Marcos and Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, when taken in the context of a frank interview that top Marine Corps General for Japan, Lt. Gen. James Bierman, gave to the Financial Times should be a cause of concern for us, given the Ukraine crisis now engulfing the world.

That interview has been widely commented on and it signals a worrying sign that a new theater of war looms in the Southeast Asian region, with the Philippines seen being drawn into the conflict as host to US bases. While the assertions from Gen. Bierman, and the supposed snubbing of a call between Zelenskyy and Marcos that was released to the media and later denied are miles apart, there is something peculiar that fuses the two disparate issues.

For one, Gen. Bierman said a mouthful about preparations that were done by the US for Ukraine months before the Ukraine crisis and which is now apparent in the joint Usjapan military exercises seemingly aimed at preparing the region for what is projected as another theater of war in Taiwan. Thus, Zelenskyy’s initiative to call Marcos should be viewed in that context.

According to Zero Hedge’s Tyler Durden, despite Chinese leadership insisting that the Taiwan and Ukraine situations are not comparable, this is precisely how Lieutenant General James Bierman presented the situation, even going so far as to admit the Pentagon is preparing a counter-china “theatre” by cultivating military ties with southeast Asian allies.

Durden cited the FT about the fact that “the US and Japanese armed forces are rapidly integrating their command structure and scaling up combined operations as Washington and its Asian allies prepare for a possible conflict with China, such as a war over Taiwan. For the Zero Hedge columnist, “while it’s no secret that Tokyo has been more and more openly siding with the US stance on arming Taiwan over the past year, also abandoning its historic post-wwii neutrality by drastically ramping up defense spending, Gen. Bierman

So, in a nutshell, the US has been preparing way ahead for another theater of war and the Philippines form part of those preparations. “As part of those preparations, the Philippines plans to allow US forces to preposition weapons and other supplies on five more bases in addition to five where the US has already access,” Durden said.

confirmed “exponential increases” over the past year in joint Us-japan operations.”

The FT interview has rankled Beijing officials, given how explicit the theme of the “Ukraine-ification of Taiwan” is throughout Bierman’s statements, especially given it’s coming from the commanding general of Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) and of Marine Forces Japan. There were two main concerns that Durden posited in his piece in commenting on the General’s interview. And this is where the Philippines come into the picture.

Bierman said: “Why have we achieved the level of success we’ve achieved in Ukraine? A big part of that has been because after Russian aggression in 2014 and 2015, we earnestly got after preparing for future conflict: training for the Ukrainians, pre-positioning of supplies, identification of sites from which we could operate, support, sustain operations.”

Bierman expanded this with this assertion: “We call that setting the theatre. And we are setting the theatre in Japan, in the Philippines, in other locations.”

For Zero Hedge, Bierman’s interview “as applied to Ukraine itself, the comments (were) highly revealing, given the casual admission that US defense planners were busy inside Ukraine years ago “earnestly preparing” for war with Russia, even down to the “pre-positioning of supplies” and readying the battle space. So, in a nutshell, the US has been preparing way ahead for another theater of war and the Philippines form part of those preparations. “As part of those preparations, the Philippines plans to allow US forces to preposition weapons and other supplies on five more bases in addition to five where the US has already access,” Durden said.

Another interesting part of the interview, according to Durden, comes in him cautioning regional US allies, including Taiwan, not to overestimate the Chinese military, asserting that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army should not be fearfully seen as being “10 feet tall.”

The FT interview has received scant attention here given the hefty surge in the prices of onion and President Marcos’s Davos trip where initiatives were made for the possible entry of foreign investments into the country. But with the onion price going back to earth, a plethora of conspiracy theories may come by and with them the next Southeast Asian crisis.