Traders get ‘Goldilocks’ outlook from Fed and drive up markets
TRADERS were prepared for Jerome Powell to push back against their optimism over interest-rate cuts—and when he didn’t, buy signals flashed across Wall Street.
Bonds gained and stocks rallied to fresh record highs Wednesday after Fed policymakers kept rates on hold and continued to pencil in three quarter-point cuts this year. The gains extended in Asia trading Thursday, with US stock futures and Treasuries rising. The benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index enjoyed its best day in more than four months, while a Bloomberg gauge of commodity prices rose to its highest level this year.
While Powell emphasized the central bank was mindful of the risks of easing too soon, he downplayed recent inflation readings that rattled markets, saying it didn’t alter the longer-term outlook. The Fed chair underscored he’s ready to act if the economy’s surprisingly strong run stalls.
“The ‘Goldilocks’ narrative is still very much in play,” said Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon
Wealth Management. “While the Fed stuck with their projections for three interest-rate cuts later this year, policymakers also raised their economic growth expectations and lowered unemployment forecasts. That is giving more fuel to the softlanding narrative that the stock market loves.”
Wall Street traders have a long history of hearing what they want when it comes to the Fed. That led them to underestimate how far the central bank would go after the rate-hike cycle began in 2022, then to prematurely bet on a rapid about-face once the economy snapped under the impact.
But the market’s latest reaction is a signal of how closely investors are now aligned with the Fed.
By late last year, traders were still betting the central bank would ease far more than policymakers were projecting. But after data showed inflation was stickier than expected in January and February, they rolled back those wagers and effectively capitulated to the central bank’s view. The major concern was that the Fed on Wednesday would reduce its forecast for rate cuts this year.
When that didn’t happen, there was a wave of relief and investors bid up the prices of assets of all stripes. Major exchange-traded funds pegged to stocks, shorter-maturity Treasuries, investment-grade bonds and high-yield debt all rose at least 0.2 percent, marking the fourth-strongest advance of that scope for any Fed decision day since June 2019. Even beleaguered trading positions—such as bets the yield curve would steepen on the longer-term growth outlook— received a boost.
Dollar falls
THE dollar dropped for a second day Thursday, weakening against all its Group-of-10 peers. The yen led currency gains after a Nikkei report said investors were speculating the Bank of Japan’s next hike would be in July or October. Australia’s dollar strengthened following better-thanexpected jobs data.
“This is a Fed that really wants that soft landing to continue,” said Priya Misra, a fund manager at Jpmorgan Asset Management, speaking on Bloomberg Television. “It was never going to be a straight line down to 2 percent,” she said, referring to the central bank’s inflation target.
Shorter-maturity notes led Treasury gains Wednesday, with two-year yields dropping eight basis points to 4.6 percent, and 10-year yields dipping two basis points to 4.27 percent.
Stock gains
THE Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq 100 index both rose more than 1 percent Wednesday. That was in part due to the prospect that earnings would keep growing on the back of the robust economy, with the Fed boosting its growth forecast for this year to 2.1 percent from 1.4 percent.
Interest-rate swap traders pushed the probability that the Fed’s first cut will come in June to nearly 80 percent. Earlier this month, the odds had slid below a coin flip as fears built up that the Fed would deliver a hawkish sur
prise this week.
Bonds are still down for the year, with previous selloffs leaving treasuries with a loss of some 1.6 percent for 2024, according to a Bloomberg index. they slid 12.5 percent in 2022 and were down for much of 2023 until a late year rally pushed them to a 4.1 percent gain.
During his press conference, Powell wouldn’t give any clear indication of when rate cuts may begin. He just said the first would likely be “at some point this year” and hinge on the incoming data. He also said the Fed saw the risks balanced between inflation and slowing growth.
“it felt to me there was a desire to not abandon the dovish pivot—and Powell certainly sounded that way in the press conference,” said David Rogal, a portfolio manager at Blackrock inc.
not all of the Fed’s data were supportive of markets. the projections boosted the median forecast for where the central bank’s key rate will end 2025 to 3.9 percent from around 3.6percent, taking one cut off the table, and the estimate of the longer-run rate edged up to about 2.56 percent. Policymakers also raised their 2024 forecast for underlying inflation to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent.
a robust jobs report in australia underscored the risk that higher-forlonger rates will be needed to tame inf lation in other developed markets. aussie three-year yields rose five basis points 3.71 percent.
“the markets reaction makes sense,” said mike Sanders, head of fixed income at madison investments. “the dots still said it will be 75 basis points and Powell said it would be appropriate to cut this year if everything goes how they think. We care less now about when they start as it’s about where they finish.”