Global aging population to hit 1.4 billion in 2030
AS people around the world are living longer, a significant shift in the global population is underway. The World Health Organization said that most individuals can now expect to live into their sixties and beyond, leading to an increase in the size and proportion of older persons in every country.
By 2030, it is projected that 1 in 6 people worldwide will be aged 60 years or over, with the number of individuals in this age group reaching 1.4 billion. Furthermore, by 2050, the global population of people aged 60 years and older is set to double to 2.1 billion, while the number of individuals aged 80 years or older is expected to triple to 426 million within the same time frame.
While population aging initially began in high-income countries, such as Japan where 30 percent of the population is already over 60 years old, low- and middle-income countries are now experiencing the most significant changes. By 2050, two-thirds of the world ’s population over 60 years old will reside in these countries.
At a biological level, aging is the result of the accumulation of molecular and cellular damage over time, leading to a gradual decline in physical and mental capacity and an increased risk of disease. However, the changes associated with aging are not linear or consistent and are only loosely associated with chronological age. Aging is often accompanied by other life transitions like retirement, changes in housing, and the loss of friends and partners.
As people age, they are more susceptible to common health conditions such as hearing loss, vision impairments, chronic pain, osteoarthritis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, depression, and dementia. Additionally, older age often brings about complex health states known as geriatric syndromes, including frailty, urinary incontinence, falls, delirium, and pressure ulcers. It is not uncommon for individuals to experience multiple conditions simultaneously as they age.
While longer life expectancy presents opportunities for individuals, families, and societies as a whole, it heavily depends on the maintenance of good health. Evidence suggests that the proportion of life spent in good health has remained relatively constant, implying that the additional years are often characterized by poor health. Therefore, living in a supportive environment and maintaining healthy behaviors throughout life are crucial for individuals to enjoy a fulfilling and active older age.
The physical and social environments in which people live play a significant role in their health and well-being as they age. Factors such as access to safe and accessible public spaces, transportation, and supportive communities contribute to healthy aging. Developing a comprehensive public health response to population aging requires considering individual and environmental approaches that not only mitigate the losses associated with older age but also promote recovery, adaptation, and psychosocial growth.
However, responding to population aging presents challenges due to the wide diversity among older individuals. Some 80-year-olds may have physical and mental capacities similar to those of much younger individuals, while others may experience significant declines at a much earlier age. A comprehensive public health approach must address the diverse experiences and needs of older people.
Ageist attitudes and discrimination against older individuals remain prevalent in society and can hinder the development of effective policies and opportunities for healthy aging. It is essential for public health professionals and society as a whole to challenge these stereotypes and promote a positive perception of aging.
Globalization, technological advancements, urbanization, migration, and changing gender norms are also influencing the lives of older people, both directly and indirectly.
Considering these factors is crucial when formulating policies and strategies to address the needs of older populations.
In response to the challenges and opportunities presented by population aging, the United Nations General Assembly declared 2021–2030 the UN Decade of Healthy Ageing, with the World Health Organization (WHO) leading its implementation. This global collaboration aims to foster longer and healthier lives through collective action in four key areas: changing perceptions and attitudes towards aging, developing age-friendly communities, delivering person-centered integrated care, and ensuring access to quality longterm care for those in need.
The UN Decade of Healthy Ageing aligns with the United Nations Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development and seeks to reduce health inequities and improve the lives of older people, their families, and communities worldwide. By addressing the challenges and embracing the opportunities presented by population aging, societies can enable older individuals to lead fulfilling lives and contribute to their communities in meaningful ways.