High infection areas must remain in GCQ — experts
We strongly recommend the national government restricts the movement of all LSI and returning OFW who wish to leave the NCR until the current surge in the pandemic has been brought under control
As COVID-19 cases surge, experts from the University of Santo Tomas (UST) urged the national government to keep in place the general community quarantine (GCQ) status over areas with high rates of transmission and increasing the utilization in hospitals.
UST Experts Dr. Bernhard Egwolf and Nicanor Austriaco,
O.P. said only areas such as the National Capital Region (NCR) that have shown proof of a decrease in infections and hospitalization rate should quarantine protocols ease.
“Positivity rates should also be stable, below 10 percent and ideally below five percent. And hospitalization occupancy rates should also be below 50 percent,” the experts said.
They have identified that most cases reported in the NCR were from unspecified or unknown areas.
Experts said this suggests the local government units might be withholding information on the location of some of their reported cases.
“Without proper geographical identification of positive cases, it will be difficult for public health authorities to properly understand the extent of the surge and to control the pandemic through contact tracing, tracking, and isolation.”
Experts also found the positivity rate in NCR, indicating the extent of community transmission in the area, has gradually increased over the past two weeks.
“Just over two weeks ago, the positivity rate hovered between six percent to eight percent of tests. Today, the positivity rate is around 12 percent and has exceeded 10 percent for the past week or so,” the experts said.
To help control the cases, the World Health Organization (WHO) urged countries to reduce the positivity rate to below five percent.
WHO representative to the Philippines, Dr. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, earlier said the increased transmission was already expected as the same scenario also happened in several areas abroad after easing the restrictions.
But he said more strict protocols be implemented instead in place of more relaxed protocols for the national government to reignite the economy as well as guard the health system.
Meanwhile, UST experts said the continued surge has likewise caused an increase in the hospital utilization rate, mainly in the NCR or the epicenter of the virus.
“The rise in the positivity rate and hospitalization rate indicates that the NCR is undergoing a real surge in the pandemic which needs to be addressed immediately by public health authorities,” the experts said.
Egwolf and Austriaco said the utilization rate of hospitals in some cities were found to possibly exceed the ‘danger zone’ of having more than 70 percent occupancy rate.
Among the cities that may be ‘crushed’ by the growing pandemic in NCR include Navotas, Makati, Malabon, Mandaluyong, Las Piñas, Manila, Pateros, Muntinlupa, Quezon City, Pasig and Taguig, based on COVID-19 data as of 12 July.
Experts further suggested that local government units should strengthen local and targeted lockdowns that should be maintained for at least two weeks to decrease possible transmissions.
The national government is likewise advised to properly supervise and monitor these areas regularly to ensure it is enacted in a timely manner.
“It is troubling to read news reports that reveal that some of the targeted lockdowns have only been kept in place for several days. This is not enough time to allow asymptomatic carriers to become non-infectious,” they said.
“If localized lockdowns are unable to slow the spread in the NCR, the government must be ready to return the component cities of the NCR to an MECQ or even an ECQ to protect our health care system and to minimize cases and deaths,”
Experts also suggest restricting their movement to protect other areas.
“We strongly recommend the national government restricts the movement of all LSI and returning OFW who wish to leave the NCR until the current surge in the pandemic has been brought under control,” they said, noting that a 14-mandatory quarantine should likewise be strictly imposed.
At present, the Philippines reported over 57,000 cases as it nears the projection of experts from the University of the Philippines the infection cases may reach over 60,000 by the end of July.