Winter will be bleak
The world should brace for the most vicious attack from the invisible beast during the winter season in the Western hemisphere, as experts at the Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS) of the United Kingdom warned when the “worst case” scenario of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will happen.
The AMS advised preparations for a challenging winter to reduce the risk of the health service being overwhelmed by a second wave, as governments already grapple with existing disruption caused by the virus and a backlog of patients awaiting medical attention.
AMS made the report for the benefit of the UK government, but the global effect of the virus makes the findings acquire a worldwide application.
The report warned of new pressures to governments since in addition to COVID-19, challenges normally faced by the health service during the winter season include flu outbreaks, a rise in other infectious diseases and the worsening of common conditions, such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
An immediate action it proposed was for governments to double efforts in minimizing the transmission of the virus in the community and reorganize health and social care staff and facilities to maintain infected and COVID-19-free zones.
It also identified as an essential the need to ensure adequate supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) and testing and system-wide infection-control measures to minimize transmission in hospitals and care homes.
Care homes are not common in the country, since Filipinos have too much respect for their elders that having other people take care of them is unthinkable to many.
The report also called for the ramping up of the test, trace and isolate program to cope with the overlapping symptoms of COVID-19, flu and other winter infections, and establishment of a comprehensive, near-real-time, population-wide surveillance system to monitor and manage a winter wave.
The AMS noted “a high degree of uncertainty” about how the pandemic will evolve, but it put forward a “reasonable worst-case scenario” where the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to (Rt value) rises to 1.7 from September 2020 onwards.
“AMS advised preparations for a challenging winter to reduce the risk of the health service being overwhelmed by a second wave.
The rate of transmission in the country using the value is about 1.2.
Modelling of this scenario suggests there would be a peak in hospital admissions and deaths in January and February 2021.
“This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility. The modelling suggests that deaths could be higher with a new wave of COVID-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately,” said Professor Stephen Holgate, FMedSci, a respiratory specialist from University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, who chaired the report.
“The peak of coronavirus infection in the winter could be more serious than the one we’ve just been through,” said Holgate, who was head of the team who prepared the report “Preparing for a Challenging Winter.”
Thirty-seven experts were assembled for the report in response to a request from Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, to model expectations for a challenging winter.
A 1.7 rate of infection would be disturbing since Prof. Azra Ghani, chairman in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, and co-author of the report, said “some of the US states where we’re currently seeing rises in infection cases currently have estimates of the reproduction number in the range of 1.1 to 1.4.”
It goes without saying, however, that the odds are encouraging that a vaccine or a medicine to maintain health would be available by the time the deadly assault happens.
“Some of the US states where we’re currently seeing rises in infection cases currently have estimates of the reproduction number in the range of 1.1 to 1.4.