What’s NCR’s case fatality rate?
DoH, OCTA give different figures
The Department of Health (DoH) on Saturday said it will meet with the OCTA Research to discuss their varying computations on the coronavirus fatality rates in Metro Manila.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the DoH has reached out to the statisticians of the research group to discuss how it calculated a 5.4 percent case fatality rate in the capital region, when the government only computed 1.46 percent.
The OCTA also raised alarm that the 5.4 percent case fatality rate it had logged in Metro Manila from 28 March to 13 April was almost three times the 1.82 percent case-fatality rate recorded from 1 March to 27 March.
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines case mortality rate as the measure of the frequency of occurrence of death in a defined population during a specified time.
“When we saw the difference, we reached out to OCTA… Our experts and epidemiologists intend to meet with them, so we can have a unified messaging,” Vergeire said in a televised briefing.
She acknowledged that epidemiologists have “different opinions” on the case fatality rates, adding that statisticians use various numerators and denominators to determine the figure.
“After our discussion with OCTA on the matter, we will give further information,” she said.
The official did not say when the meeting will be held, but she maintained that the DoH’s computation was based on the formula set by the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Based on the DoH formula, all confirmed cases, including deaths, recoveries, and active cases, were part of the denominator.
The OCTA group, on the other hand, has yet to explain its computation, but maintained that it uses the DoH data as basis for their projections and studies.
Butch Ong, one of the members of OCTA team, said the differences between the group and DoH’s figures might lie on “mathematical assumptions” and “elements.”
“The DoH and OCTA are both working using the same data set and maybe the difference is on the averaging of the data,” Ong said in the same briefing.
“Probably, it’s in some of the mathematical assumptions and some mathematical elements used by OCTA and the DoH. But both of us are working to advise on policy to keep people informed,” he added.
Data from the DoH showed that Metro Manila has so far confirmed 5,912 deaths out of the 407,096 Covid-19 cases in the region.
The nationwide death toll, meanwhile, rose to 15,738 as of Friday.
The OCTA group, which tags itself as an “independent and interdisciplinary” research team, is composed of faculty members and alumni from the University of the Philippines and contributors from the University of Santo Tomas and Providence College in the US.
Months after the coronavirus outbreak began in the Philippines, the group emerged to provide forecasts, analyses, and trends in pandemic figures.
The media often quoted their members in reports for their views on existing policies and government’s pandemic strategies.
The Palace has previously urged the group to refrain from publicly making recommendations on the government’s Covid-19 response.