China’s population shrinks for first time in over 60 years
China can no longer rely on demography as its economic driver
BEIJING, China (AFP) — China’s population shrank last year for the first time in more than six decades, official data showed Tuesday, as the world’s most populous country faces a looming demographic crisis.
The nation of 1.4 billion has seen birth rates plunge to record lows as its workforce ages, in a rapid decline that analysts warn could stymie economic growth and pile pressure on strained public coffers.
The mainland Chinese population stood at around 1,411,750,000 at the end of 2022, Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics reported, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of the previous year.
The number of births was 9.56 million, the NBS said, while the number of deaths stood at 10.41 million.
The last time China’s population declined was in the early 1960s, as the country battled the worst famine in its modern history, a result of the disastrous Mao Zedong agricultural policy known as the Great Leap Forward.
China ended its strict one-child policy — imposed in the 1980s owing to fears of overpopulation — in 2016 and began allowing couples to have three children in 2021.
But that has failed to reverse the demographic decline for a country that has long relied on its vast workforce as a driver of economic growth.
“The population will likely trend down from here in coming years,” Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management said.
“China cannot rely on the demographic dividend as a structural driver for economic growth,” he added.
“Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth, which is driven by government policies.”
‘I will not be a mother’
News of the population decline quickly trended on China’s heavily censored internet, with some expressing fears for the country’s future.
“Without children, the state and the nation have no future,” one comment on the Twitter-like Weibo service read.
The last time China’s population declined was in the early 1960s.
“Having children is also a social responsibility,” another comment from a well-known “patriotic” influencer read.
But others pointed to the soaring cost of living and the difficulties of raising children in modern China.
“I love my mother, I will not be a mother,” one said.
Many local authorities have already launched measures to encourage couples to have children.
The southern megacity of Shenzhen, for example, now offers a birth bonus and pays allowances until the child is three years old.
A couple who has their first baby automatically receives 3,000 yuan ($444), an amount that rises to 10,000 yuan for their third.
In the country’s east, the city of Jinan has since 1 January paid a monthly stipend of 600 yuan for couples that have a second child.
Chinese people are “getting used to the small family because of the decadeslong one-child policy,” Xiujian Peng, a researcher at Australia’s University of Victoria, told AFP.
“The Chinese government has to find effective policies to encourage birth, otherwise, fertility will slip even lower,” she added.