Marcos gambit — nuke-capable missiles
Marcos Jr. should consider abandoning the use of the Brahmos, the Indian nuclearcapable hypersonic missiles, if it is not too late. It is a geopolitical blunder for a small nation like the Philippines to encourage a proxy war rather than to avoid it. In a proxy war of giants, the small nation stands to lose in terms of massive collateral damage.
The ground system for the Brahmos nuclear-capable cruise missile, India’s pride, is arriving in the Philippines in a few days. The missiles, three batteries worth $365 million, will follow in March. (Gravitas News, 4 January 2024 — https:// youtu.be/4DVluVpAcVA?si=mT0AybXXI_9FQlp)
The decision of Marcos Jr. and his war hawks to respond to the helplessness to contain China’s aggression and harassment in the West Philippine Sea is understandable. But this small nation is treading in dangerous waters when it is forced to escalate to nuclear-capable nukes in the name of “survival,” when ironically, this may result in a massacre.
The enemy will always assume that a hypersonic missile like the Brahmos is nuclear-armed to be on the safe side. If a proxy war breaks out and the Brahmos are used, China will surely respond, and her missiles will be bigger and better. India’s claim that the Brahmos is “the world’s fastest cruise missile” is pure propaganda. It has a speed of a mere Mach 3 (three times the speed of sound), whereas the smallest version of China’s hypersonic Dongfeng missile has a claimed speed of Mach 10.
The critical escalation factor is that the Brahmos and the Dongfeng are nuclear-capable. The nuclear factor cannot be discounted when push comes to shove in a US-China showdown in the WPS. It may suddenly evolve into a nuclear confrontation.
The US may not permit the Brahmos to be installed in its EDCA bases, as they have their own missiles. Either way, missiles in EDCA bases, secret or open, may invite a pre-emptive strike from China. China will always assume the EDCA bases have secret hypersonic nuke missiles, whether Brahmos or US-made, nuclear-armed or not.
Beyond the WPS proxy war
Marcos Jr. has to find other places to install the Brahmos, hopefully away from populated areas, to minimize collateral damage. In truth, the puny Indian Brahmos have no place in the US big-time scheme of things in a proxy war with China.
“China’s hypersonic missiles threaten US power in the Pacific — an aerospace engineer explains how the weapons work and the unique threats they pose…. the DF-27 can fly as far as Hawaii, penetrate US missile defenses and pose a particular threat to US aircraft carriers, according to news reports of an assessment from the Pentagon.” (theconversation.com 24 May 2023).
The situation in the global nuclear war theater is unpredictable because the public knows only so much from social media and the websites of unknown media outlets. There may be secret weapons beyond what are found in cyberspace.
According to the Wall Street Journal, China and Russia are far ahead of the US in terms of hypersonic missile technology. Meanwhile, US hypersonics are still on the drawing board or in the pilot-test phase, and many of China’s Dongfeng versions are already operational.
China launched a “trial” hypersonic missile in the South China Sea because it foresaw that it might play a critical role in a war with the US. China’s Dongfeng 41 (DF-41) has a claimed speed of Mach 25 and can theoretically reach any global target in less than an hour.
The US is frantically trying to bridge the gap with China and Russia, but doing so will take a while. Because of this, the US will avoid a major missile confrontation with China and Russia for now.
The US, theoretically, is not ready for a nuclear confrontation with China or Russia in the WPS or the Pacific.
“India’s claim that the Brahmos is ‘the world’s fastest cruise missile’ is pure propaganda.
“But this small nation is treading in dangerous waters when it is forced to escalate to nuclearcapable nukes in the name of ‘survival.’