Exposing gray matter (2)
Assertive transparency, which the country has adopted in response to China’s gray zone tactics, has become a laudable move that think tank Albert del Rosario Institute for Strategic and International Studies, or Stratbase, said “is already moving the needle on the conditions necessary to deter and defeat gray zone aggression.”
As one nation’s isolated tactic, the report said it is far from certain it can succeed in the face of China’s very robust, mature, and comprehensive maritime gray zone strategy.
“Beijing has already shown some signs that the negative attention is making its bite felt,” the report said.
The paper mentioned that in March 2023, China sent a swarm of over 40 militia vessels to intimidate the defenders of the Philippines’ largest South China Sea outpost at Thitu or Pag-Asa Island.
The swarming incident occurred a month after the Philippine Coast Guard initially released photos of the laser incident at Second Thomas Shoal.
The effort backfired badly. Far from being dissuaded, Manila immediately dispatched its photographers into the fray.
“China has further demonstrated its sensitivity to this new tactic by imitation. It has begun sending its own photographers into expected confrontations to arm its spokespersons and proxies better while also lead-turning anticipated Philippine press releases with its own preemptive counternarratives,” the report said.
The attempts can be almost comic, as Beijing will sometimes release visual evidence intended to refute Manila simply by excluding the events in question.
The video released by the China Coast Guard following the 5 August water cannoning of a resupply boat showed only the time before the water hit the boat. Chinese media outlets bizarrely pointed to this as proof that the boat was never struck.
The so-called “Christmas convoy,” organized by a civil society coalition of West Philippine Sea advocates was en route to deliver holiday cheer to Filipino troops stationed at remote West Philippine Sea outposts.
It was then that what was seen was nothing quite like it before.
Despite adapting its route to avoid any Second Thomas Shoal approaches to give the situation time to settle down, the convoy soon found itself shadowed by four different Chinese vessels— two naval, one coast guard, and one unidentified “cargo” ship.
Having watched the dangerous maneuvers and water cannons being broadcast nationwide over the past two days, the PCG’s officers and the civilian volunteers were on high alert.
Therefore, when the China Coast Guard abruptly cut across the BRP Melchora Aquino’s stern and through the convoy, the organizers made the hard call that discretion was the better part of valor. The convoy turned back toward home.
“The fate of the Christmas convoy demonstrates that for all of its considerable benefits, assertive transparency will not by itself deliver the Philippines a quick or easy victory in its long West Philippine Sea struggle,” the paper concluded.
While a strengthened national resilience generated the convoy, it has not yet generated the maritime security capacity to protect it — a much longer project requiring much more time, capital investments, and political will.
The report said it would need further moral and material support commitments before China is forced to take it seriously as a geopolitical and maritime power.
Also needed are for likeminded nations, transnational bodies, and nongovernmental groups to learn the lessons it is teaching and develop their own assertive transparency campaigns.
Such support is needed if the tide against gray zone aggression is to be conclusively turned.
“The paper mentioned that in March 2023, China sent a swarm of over 40 militia vessels to intimidate the defenders of the Philippines’ largest South China Sea outpost at Thitu or PagAsa Island.
“The video released by the China Coast Guard following the 5 August water cannoning of a resupply boat included only the time prior to when the water hit the boat. Chinese media outlets bizarrely pointed to this as proof that the boat was never struck.