IMF: Indonesia, Phl biggest ASEAN economies by 2028

In 2027, the Philippines will become the 3rd largest economy, surpassing Singapore, only behind Indonesia and Thailand

Strong steady growth of the Philippine economy is expected to lead to the gross domestic product to catapult to being the second biggest in the region behind Indonesia, surpassing Singapore.

According to an International Monetary Fund forecast released last January, Southeast Asia’s gross domestic product is currently headed by Indonesia with a nominal GDP of $1.4 trillion and followed by Thailand, $512.2 billion.

In the 3rd spot is Singapore with a GDP of $497.3 billion, the Philippines was 4th with a GDP of $435.6 billion, Vietnam at 5th spot with $433.3 billion and on 6th spot is Malaysia, $430.8 billion.

By 2024, the ranking will still be the same. In 2027, the Philippines will become the 3rd largest economy, surpassing Singapore, only behind Indonesia and Thailand.

In 2028, the Philippines will be the second-largest economy as it will surpass Thailand with a nominal GDP of $698.5 billion.

Fastest growth engine

According to the latest official data published by the major economist in Southeast Asia, the Philippines remains the fastest-growing economy in the region, expanding by 5.6 percent in 2023, followed by Vietnam and Indonesia growing by 5.05 percent, Malaysia expanding by 3.8 percent and Singapore with minimal growth of 1.2 percent, while Thailand is estimated to expand by 2.4 percent last year.

In the 4th quarter of 2023, Vietnam recorded the highest economic expansion of 6.7 percent, followed by the Philippines at 5.6 percent, Indonesia grew 5.04 percent, Malaysia expanded by 3.4 percent and Singapore posting a growth of 2.8 percent.

“The ASEAN region is hence expected to remain one of the fastest growing regions of the world economy over the decade ahead. Indonesia, which is already ASEAN’s largest economy, will become one of the world’s leading emerging markets over the next decade, with the size of its GDP forecast to rise from $1.3 trillion in 2022 to $4.1 trillion by 2035,” Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence, said.

He added Vietnam and Philippines are also expected to join the ranks of the world’s largest emerging markets by 2035.

Meanwhile, Malaysia is set to become one of the advanced economies of the APAC region as measured by its GDP, which is projected to reach around $26,000 per capita by 2035.

“Consequently ASEAN, together with mainland China and India, will be one of the three main growth engines for the Asia-Pacific economy over the next decade,” according to Biswas.