The foreign policy rebalance: Western criticism and Asian admiration

SINCE assuming the Philippine presidency in June 2016, Rody Duterte has radically altered the texture of his country’s foreign policy, upholding a stance that demands independence from the west, reemphasizing the primacy of the relationship with immediate neighbors in Asia.

The strong words made in response to statements made by the United States government and the European Union have not been taken very well by the object countries.

Yet as he winds up his Southeast Asian tour and assumes the role of ASEAN chair, it is clear from the reception he gets and with the positive opinions of many Asian publications, that this Filipino president is admired, seeing him as their frank and pragmatic spokesman to the world, expressing what many can’t say.

Locally, however, there is a fear that the Asian rebalance will alienate the West.

Why should’t he prioritize Asian relationships? After all, Asia holds around 3/4 of our global trade, while the US and Europe are at a fifth.

Yet these two western powers like to criticize foreign governments who don’t see things their way, often behaving as though their positons require the best attention.

But a closer look at the European Union’s words against the Philippines, however reveal a deep ulterior motive: to stem the tide of economic decline within its borders due to a shrinking population and the anti immigrant bias of many Europeans, and the possible disintegration of the Union with Brexit and the threat of more populist governments on their way.

Specifically, Europe needs to consolidate trade relationships with emergent economies like the Philippines as a hedge to push growth despite the forementioned challenges. The 100 million-strong Filipino market and the 600 million ASEAN population are attractive levers to entice European capital.

Since investment flows are determined more by profit than political considerations, expect investments to continue pouring in despite their rhetoric about withdrawing gsp+preferences due to the proposed death penalty. Their trade is robust with many countries that have a death penalty.

Beyond the obvious economic benefit Asia brings us, it is evident that unlike the West, with its strictures, Asia will buy what our poor produce, like agricultural commodities, while European and American trade requires volumes of paperwork, high freight costs and standards that most Filipino companies have difficulty meeting.

Moreover, the Asian pivot is politically successful because it comes with an assertion of Asian perspectives defined by Asians rather than by Americans or Europeans.

Perhaps President Duterte knew someting that many among us do not: That southeast asians by and large despise western governments, especially when they force you to lose face. They probably won’t express it outright but it is evident in their policy actions.

Compared to the Philippines the colonial experience of the rest of Southeast Asia is one of victory after resistance,where colonizers were practically booted out early, where the resulting relationship tilted in their favor.

On the other hand, the unequal “special relationship” maintained with America only fed the perception of our Southeast Asian neighbors, who called us “American stooges” for our fawning subservience in exchange for a pittance.

Perhaps that is changing. This probably explains why hundreds would gather to follow Duterte in Jakarta, and Thai taxi drivers are impressed by him. He has become the strong voice their own leaders may not have.

That same strong voice also facilitated stronger ties between Tokyo, Beijing and Manila, with the former now buying more Filipino products,and encouraging its citizens to visit the Philippines, boosting tourism numbers.

The voice also calmed South China Sea tensions and got the Chinese talking. Other ASEAN countries rejoice at this, since their own economic relationships with China are threatened by the tension.

The inability to issue an ASEAN joint comunique on the controversy last July in Laos shows how disunited ASEAN is, and how vital it is to move while not rocking the ASEAN boat.Was Duterte able to deftly move among these issues? Experts say yes.

A more poignant result of this stronger voice is when China acclaimed the sovereign rights of the Philippines over the Benham rise.

Such words never heard during PNOys time, where we saw the cancellation of importations of Philippine bananas and other products over the former government’s posturing where in spite of the bravado, American rhetoric and Trillanes backchanneling, China built their structures.

Thus, before observers criticize our foreign policy we need to understand the new normal where countries have to assert themselves alone, no longer as an adjunct of another power, like the Cold War days. Today is a world of multipoles, shifting alliances and temporary interests.

Likewise worth noting is that ASEAN will rise in global prominence, no longer defined by who once colonized them, but by who is trying to trade with them. It will need that strong voice, and a leader who can capitalize on these opportunities and move everyone forward.

These are the new normals even former diplomats and other pundits need to study before giving small minded hipster comments.

With this, an independent foreign policy therefore demands a clever hand and the courage to stand alone, and base it on strategic and tactical goals.

*** Congratulations to the University of the Philippines fighting Maroons men’s basketball team for winning the 80th Araw ng Davao basketbal tournament against the powerhouse De La Salle green archers. It was a hard fought game before a jampacked crowd at the Almendras Gym in Davao City.