Duterte’s ace
WHILE there have been concerns if not criticisms of the latest move by the Duterte administration to forego funding from the European Union, a more careful look would show that it is a good strategy. The European Union will not stop funding on-going programs and projects and the Duterte administration will not stop the inflow of these funds. What it will not accept are those which carry conditions that the Duterte administration perceives as infringing on the country’s internal matters – the conduct of the anti-drug campaign. The amounts that are being received from the European Union are small-ticket items which pale in comparison to forthcoming funds for massive infrastructure projects coming from China and maybe, Russia.
The expected flood of funds from China, both as Official Development Assistance (ODA) and investments by state agencies and Chinese “private” businessmen, will more than compensate for any loss coming from traditional ODA partners. President Duterte’s neighborly approach to Big Brother China seems to be paying off. Not only will China provide needed funds for the Philippines to undertake its “catch-up” infrastructure projects; additional inflows will come from increased China-Philippine trade and from more Chinese tourist arrivals.
It was a good move for the Duterte administration to emphasize the independent Philippine foreign policy by easing tensions in the South China Sea and by removing the impression that the Philippines is the surrogate of the USA in its containment of China. Philippine fishermen are back in their usual fishing grounds and bilateral talks with China are beginning. Differences will not be resolved quickly but at least while both sides are talking, mutually beneficial economic and trade arrangements can continue.
China also does not have to dramatically adjust any of its global strategies as all of them involve reaching out to more developing countries, especially those geographically close to its borders. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China can easily accommodate the inclusion of the Philippines in this project that traces the historical Silk Road. We should remember that long before the Spaniards came, the Philippines had already been trading with China and local sultans had even gone to China to cement relationships.
China’s ascendancy on the world stage is being acknowledged by many countries. The presentation of Chinese President Xi Jinping at a World Economic Forum in Davos was well received as it reflected a desire to be a responsible leader in continuing globalization and a global statesman in resolving international disputes in contrast to the unpredictability of the new American President Donald Trump. The Duterte administration shift towards China without totally cutting ties with the United States is bringing in dividends.
The forthcoming visit of President Duterte to Russia will help strengthen relationships but, as announced, no agreements will be signed. It is more a preliminary visit to explore areas for economic cooperation and people-to-people exchanges. This cautionary approach is prudent as, unlike China, the Philippines does not have a long history of trade with Russia. Also domestic issues on the economic and political fields as well as its involvement in a number of conflicts in the Middle East may constrain Russia’s ability to provide the level of support now being offered by China. One does not also have to embrace another Big Brother when one is already in the tight embrace of China, especially when there is still some degree of rivalry between Russia and China.
The Duterte administration is fortunate that it has the “China ace” in its cards but it has to be careful that it plays the game well with only the welfare of the Filipino people in mind.