Looking beyond 2020
WITH rapid changes going on in almost every sector, most of us are overwhelmed and can hardly catch up, much less plan for what is yet to come. And with the country embroiled in war against drugs and poverty as well as ethnic and resources conflict, one way by which we can manage our anxieties and troubling thoughts is to imagine what is in store for us in the future. While a few decades ago, there was only Nostradamus and predictions from soothsayers, all one has to do is to Google and hooray! One can have access to numerous think tanks, and forecasting centers and a host of economic, political, technological analysts who spend time aggregating data and analyzing trends. What does the future look like for us in the country and the world?
Much of the information deals with economics, employment opportunities, impact of technology, and politics and starts with the years 2025, then on to 2030, 2050, and beyond. The analysis is based on comparative data gathered from various countries of the world. Some are more specific but most are general and are tailored for policy planners, prospective investors, and the general public.
I merely picked out random observations which would be of general interest:
The year 2025 is expected to be the most exciting time ever, especially with such developments as: (1) a $1,000 human brain (computer) with the equivalent processing speed of a human brain; (2) a trillion sensor economy with its trillion sensors generating perfect knowledge. With data everywhere, you will be able to get information everywhere; you’ll be able to know everything you want to know anytime and query for answers and insights; (3) 8 billion hyper-connected people; (4) Global giants Google, Apple, Microsoft, IBM, etc. will provide the healthcare industry business models that will democratize today’s bureaucratic and inefficient system. Each one will understand the cause of cancer, heart attack, and what to do about it. Robotic surgeons can carry out surgeries, and each will be able to regrow a heart, liver, kidney when we need it; (5) In this augmented and virtual reality, the phone, computer, and TV will be replaced by stylish eyewear and other “wearables;” (6) evolution of delivery of goods and services, transport systems, and analytics; (7) automation of clerical work, bookkeeping, paralegal work, contracting jobs.
Some of the manifestations of this “connected living ecosystem” are now seen through robot-assisted living and teaching. Connectivity and artificial intelligence will guarantee the success of these emerging industries in ICT, healthcare, cyber-security, alternative energy, wellness, and urban logistics. Smart robots, smart phones, sensors will also take over many of our tasks. Because technology is embedded in everything we do as billions are expected to have Internet connectivity, those who can harness the technology can become billionaires. But the downside is that 5 million jobs will be lost to automation. They will be replaced by those who have computational, marketing, and analytic skills who can manage massive amounts of data. There will be need for lifelong education to remain on top of one’s job.
The healthcare industry is also poised for growth with medical technicians, physical therapists, medical assistants as well as caregivers because of the growing elderly population. There is also demand for workers with social or emotional intelligence and those with crosscultural competencies on account of the opening up of borders, as well as those with media literacy skills or understanding how various media platforms can be utilized. There is also demand for greater adaptability and business acumen with more entrepreneurial opportunities.
The next ten years, according to Stratfors, a think tank, the world will become a more dangerous place with many of the powerful countries experiencing a period of chaos and decline. The US will “disengage” and lose some of its power. China and India will lead the global economy. China will continue to remain an economic power and Japan, Asia’s rising naval power. Islamic militancy will be contained. A new group of 16 nations – most of Southeast Asia, East Africa, and a part of Latin America — will emerge as the economic powerhouse. Technology has the potential of “sharing prosperity” as well as promoting inclusiveness. Thus, the gradual reduction of extreme poverty can be experienced all over the world with its elimination by the year 2080.
By 2030, there will be 124 million people in the Philippines which shall have become the 26th largest economy of the world. This is predicted to grow so that we would become the 16th largest economy by 2050. Millennials which account for 35 million people today will perhaps continue to dictate retail spending and lead the use of the “shared economy.”