North Korea blinks
E16 August 2017
IGHT years ago, North Korea’s test on 25 May 2009 of a nuclear weapon, five times more powerful than its first-ever nuke-bomb (exploded last October 2006), threw the UN, US, Japan, China, and other countries – not the least South Korea – into a state of high alert and tension.
Reported the Associated Press, (27 May 2009): “THE U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL SAID IT WAS A ‘CLEAR VIOLATION’ OF THE 2006 RESOLUTION BANNING NORTH KOREA FROM CONDUCTING NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT, AND THAT IT WOULD WORK IMMEDIATELY TO TAKE STRONGER MEASURES.”
ACCORDINGLY ON 30 MAY 2009 IN SINGAPORE, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY ROBERT GATES WARNED AT THE ANNUAL SUMMIT OF DEFENSE/SECURITY MINISTERS THAT A NUCLEARARMED NORTH KOREA WOULD BE UNACCEPTABLE, WHILE CHINA CALLED FOR CALM, EVEN AS JAPAN AND RUSSIA EXPRESSED JUSTIFIABLE ALARM.
Gates said NoKor’s defiant acts could spark an arms race with serious consequences for Asia. Gates declared. Reiterating the US commitment to defend Asian partners from attack, he added any transfer of nuclear weapons/ materiel to other countries or “nonstate entities” (terrorists) would be a grave threat to the US and its allies.
Coming from that timely security summit in Singapore, Secretary Gates pushed for united action among China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the US to “punish” North Korea, and work out alternative measures in case cooperative efforts as called for by the UN fell short.
AT THE EPICENTER OF THE THREATS AND TENSIONS IS SEOUL AND ITS SURROUNDING INDUSTRIAL, FINANCIAL, AND TRANSPORTATION HUBS – WHICH WERE WITHIN THE BOMBARDMENT RANGE OF 12,000 HOSTILE NOKOR ARTILLERY PIECES. ON TOP OF THE INTENSIFIED CHALLENGES FROM THE NORTH WERE TWO CRISIS SITUATIONS CONVERGING UPON BELEAGUERED SOUTH KOREA BACK IN 2009, NAMELY:
(1) Economic recession that plunged the country, the world’s 15th largest exporter, into its deepest decline since the Korean War.
(2) Effective abrogation by North Korea of the July, 1953, armistice on the Korean Peninsula which guaranteed a ceasefire between the Communist forces and UN allies.
“Some analysts suggested NoKor Leader Kim’s above-cited comments reported by Agence France Presse this week opened a possible path to de-escalating a growing crisis fuelled by bellicose words between US President Donald Trump and the North Korean leadership.”
Their recent exchanges were focused on a North Korean threat to fire a volley of four missiles over Japan toward the US territory of Guam (which hosts a number of strategic military bases). The North’s official KCNA news agency said Kim was briefed on the “plan for an enveloping fire at Guam” during his inspection on 14 August 2017 of the NoKor Strategic Force Command in charge of his missile units.
Although Kim said he would want to “watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees” before executing any order to blast South Korea and Guam, experts claim that NoKor actually blinked and moved one step backward.
The North Korean announcement prompted subdued celebrations in Guam, where officials described themselves as “almost ecstatic that Kim Jong-Un has backed off.”
The heightened tension had again sparked global alarm, with world leaders including Chinese President Xi Jinping urging calm on both sides. South Korean President Moon Jae-In had also weighed in, by saying that Seoul would avoid a second Korean War at all costs.
TENSIONS HAVE BEEN MOUNTING SINCE THE NORTH TESTED TWO INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILES LAST MONTH, WHICH APPEARED TO BRING MUCH OF THE U.S. WITHIN RANGE. D.F.A.: THE MICIC INITIATIVE
TODAY, WE LIVE IN AN AGE OF INCREASED MOBILITY WITH OVER 232 MILLION INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS WORLDWIDE. WHEN CONFLICTS OR NATURAL DISASTERS ERUPT, MIGRANTS REQUIRE SPECIAL FOCUSED ASSISTANCE. LAUNCHED IN 2014, THE MIGRANTS IN COUNTRIES IN CRISIS (MICIC) INITIATIVE CO-CHAIRED BY THE U.S. AND THE PHILIPPINES, DEVELOPED THE GUIDELINES TO PROTECT MIGRANTS IN COUNTRIES EXPERIENCING CONFLICT OR NATURAL DISASTERS.
Thus, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) of the Philippine government jointly adopted a crisis alert system which todays serves as the basis for emergency repatriation and deployment restrictions. On consultation with the Department of Health (DOH), DFA may impose crisis alert levels in times of pandemics and other medical hazards. In accordance with the established protocols on international relations, these Crisis Alert Levels, with their respective indicators and deployment status, are:
ALERT LEVEL 1 (Precautionary Phase): Issued when there are valid signs of internal disturbance, instability, and/or external threat to the host country. Filipinos are alerted to take necessary precautions.
ALERT LEVEL 2 (Restriction Phase): Issued if there are threats to the life, security, and property of Filipinos arising from internal disturbance, instability, and/ external threat. Filipinos are instructed to restrict non-essential movements, avoid public places, and prepare for evacuation. DOLE only allows returning Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), with existing employment contracts, or a group of OFWs under special circumstances, to go back to their host country.
ALERT LEVEL 3 (Voluntary Repatriation): Issued when violent disturbances or external aggression occur in a limited area. Overseas Filipinos are enjoined to return to the Philippines upon employers’, or if not possible, government’s expense. DOLE shall impose absolute deployment ban.
ALERT LEVEL 4 (Mandatory Repatriation): Issued when there is a large-scale internal conflict or full blown external attack. The Philippine Government shall undertake mandatory evacuation procedures.
THE PHILIPPINE CONSULATE IN AGANA (HAGATNA) HEADED BY CONGEN MARCIANO DE BORJA HAD PLACED ITS PERSONNEL ON AN “ALERT LEVEL ONE” (PRECAUTIONARY PHASE), AS IF FOR A STORM WARNING IN THE PACIFIC.
THE MILITARY IN GUAM AND ALSO THE TERRITORIAL CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT COULD BE SUBJECT TO VARIOUS DEFENSE READINESS CONDITION (DEFCON) LEVELS, NAMELY:
DEFCON 1 – COCKED PISTOL. Nuclear war imminent; maximum readiness.
DEFCON 2 – FAST PACE. Next step to nuclear war; Armed Forces ready to deploy and engage in less than 6 hours.
DEFCON 3 – ROUND HOUSE. Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness; Air Force ready to mobilize in 15 minutes.
DEFCON 4 – DOUBLE TAKE. Increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measures; above normal readiness.
DEFCON 5 – FADE OUT. Lowest state of readiness; normal readiness. LOCKED AND LOADED: PRESIDENT TRUMP
LAST 13 AUGUST 2017, REUTERS REPORTED: “U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP, VACATIONING AT HIS BEDMINSTER, NEW JERSEY GOLF RESORT, AGAIN REFERRED TO NORTH KOREA’S LEADER IN HIS LATEST BELLICOSE REMARKS. ‘MILITARY SOLUTIONS ARE NOW FULLY IN PLACE, LOCKED AND LOADED, SHOULD NORTH KOREA ACT UNWISELY.’ ‘HOPEFULLY KIM JONG UN WILL FIND ANOTHER PATH!’ TRUMP WROTE ON TWITTER.