Consumer outlook remains optimistic
Latest BSP survey
Consumers expect salary improvements, more job options, and a generally stable end-year period despite that they also see prices increasing during the last quarter of 2017, based on the latest survey of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).
The BSP’s fourth quarter Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) showed an overall confidence index (CI) of 9.5 percent which was lower than the previous quarter’s results of 10.2 percent because of a mixed bag of sentiments ranging from expectations of higher salary which is a positive, to peace and order situations that are worrying Filipinos.
The Cl as explained by the BSP, is the percentage of households that gave an affirmative answer to the survey, less the percentage of households that answered in the negative to a particular question in the CES. Consumer confidence is measured by respondents’ view on the economic condition, family financial situation, and family income.
The BSP said consumers’ positive sentiment mostly came from the following: expectations of additional family income and higher salary; and availability of more jobs which would mean more employed members of the family.
The less favorable outlook, in the meantime, were because of: higher prices of goods and household expenditures; peace and order problems such as concerns on extra-judicial killings, the drug issues and crisis in Marawi. They are also worried about typhoon and calamities as well as poor health and high medical expenses.
The BSP said the CES results for the next quarter or the first quarter 2018, are also on the steady side with a CI of 17.5 percent, slighlty lower than the 17.8 percent in the last survey.
For the year ahead, consumer outlook was, however, decidedly “less upbeat” with a CI of 32 percent from 33.7 percent in the third quarter.
The BSP said that for the fourth quarter, consumer sentiment on the three indicators – economy, family situation and family income – ended mixed with most expressing a less enthusiastic view on economic condition while remaining steady on the family’s financial situation and higher on family income. “Notably, a record-high Cl was posted on the outlook on family income (at 10.3 percent from nine percent in the previous quarter). For the next quarter consumers’ views on family finances and income turned more buoyant but that on the country’s economic condition weakened. The same broad trends were observed for the year ahead,” said the BSP.
The low-income group had a less pessimistic outlook for the fourth quarter since this sector expect more jobs and it is also the harvest season. The middleand high-income groups, on the other hand, generally have a positive but weaker outlook as they anticipated lower salary and higher household expenditures. “For the next quarter and the year ahead, the sentiment of consumers was less favorable for the low-income group, steady for middle-income and was more upbeat for highincome,” said the BSP.
Filipino households had a higher spending outlook index, added the BSP, of 34.9 percent for the next quarter. These are expenditures on goods and services.
In the meantime, the BSP said the percentage of households which viewed the fourth quarter as a favorable time to buy big-ticket items increased to 31.9 percent from 30.2 percent in the previous quarter. “The more favorable outlook on buying conditions was evident across all big-ticket items,” according to the CES. “For the year ahead, buying intentions of respondents across all big-ticket items likewise improved to 12.7 percent compared to 11.2 percent from the previous quarter’s survey results.”