Revolutionary government?

IT is useful to look at the past events to predict what the future could be. As we exit 2017 and plod on to 2018, some happenings in the year could mean much for the days ahead. Here are some of those significant for me.

The extension of martial law in the whole of Mindanao up to December, 2018, when the original reason for its imposition (the ISIS-inspired takeover of Marawi City) is now non-existent. The rationale for its extension is the continuing threat from those rebels who have slipped away as well as the insurgent activities of the New People’s Army (NPA) and Moro separatist movements. Inasmuch as the NPAs are widely distributed in the whole of the Philippine archipelago, is martial law for the whole country in store for 2018?

President Duterte is one commanderin-chief who has audaciously cultivated the loyalty of the Armed Forces of the Philippine (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP). He has consistently visited the wounded in the hospitals; condoled with the families of slain soldiers and policemen; and publicly defended them in high-profile cases even before the launch of any investigation. He has given cash gifts and increased significantly the takehome pay of both soldiers and policemen. The Duterte administration has increased and modernized the weaponry of the AFP and the PNP to improve their capability to fight insurgents and criminals. This arsenal could also be utilized to quell any domestic opposition to the imposition of martial law nationwide. Will 2018 test the loyalty of the AFP and the PNP to President Duterte or to the Filipino people and the Philippine Constitution?

Perceived critics of the Duterte administration, including elements of the media, are finding themselves under attack. Senator Leila de Lima is still under detention in Camp Crame after being charged with drug-related cases in February. Other opposition senators have been threatened with law suits (Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre against Senator Risa Hontiveros) while there have been threats of filing impeachment cases against the Ombudsman. The House leadership has decided to withhold any funding for projects in the districts of opposition lawmakers (even including the speaker’s political (?) enemy, Rep. Tonyboy Floirendo). Will 2018 mean more vigorous attempts to silence the opposition with the declaration of martial law nationwide as the ultimate weapon?

President Duterte has begun to fill up the vacancies in the Supreme Court and within his term will have the opportunity to have a court overflowing with his appointees. His allies in Congress have begun impeachment proceedings against the current Supreme Court chief justice and, given the direction of the hearings, she will most probably be impeached. It does not matter if the charges are impeachable ones or not; what is important is the numbers in the House are against her. Will the trend of the Supreme Court ruling consistently with the perceived wishes of President Duterte (e.g., burial of former President Ferdinand Marcos in the Libingan ng Bayani) continue in 2018? President Duterte has on many occasions expressed a preference for Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as vice president. Will the Supreme Court functioning as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal decide in Bongbong’s favor? And when the issue of the extension of martial law in Mindanao and later for the whole country is up for judicial review, how will the Supreme Court rule?

In August, 2017, President Rodrigo Duterte said it would take a revolutionary government for the country to “really go up” but assured all that it would not happen under his regime. Later, on October 13, he said he would declare one if he senses that a destabilization plot is being hatched to depose him. On November 21, he again denied he has plans to establish a revolutionary government. However, his supporters continuously call for the declaration of one, even holding rallies on November 30 in many parts of the country to push their advocacy. Because experience shows that President Duterte flip-flops on a number of issues, will 2018 bring not just martial law for the whole country but the declaration of a revolutionary government?

I hope and pray not.