Will the WTO survive a hostile Donald Trump?

GENEVA (AFP) — An international organization that Donald Trump demeans, undermines and then embraces when it suits his interests: probably sounds familiar within NATO, or the UN.

Now it's time to add the World Trade Organization to the list.

The early signs of the US president's intentions towards the Geneva-based trade body all pointed towards hostility.

As a candidate he called it a ''disaster'' and threatened a US withdrawal. His administration's trade office then said the United States had the right to ignore any rulings from the WTO's crucial Dispute Settlement Body that violated national interests.

But that was small potatoes compared to his proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium.

For many experts, his administration's effort to portray the tariffs as legal under international trade law for national security reasons amounted to a nuclear strike against the rules-based trade system.

But then, just a day after hitting China with unilateral tariffs on up to $60 billion of imports, Washington last week turned to the WTO, asking the DSB to punish China over intellectual property breaches.

''The fact that they have brought this to a WTO dispute means it is not 'Trump versus the WTO,' it is Trump fully using the WTO, which is a completely different picture from the national security (steel and aluminium case),'' said Peter Ungphakorn, who worked at the trade body for two decades.

Ungphakorn, now a writer on trade, told AFP it may be impossible to identify a ''coherent'' Trump trade policy, but that outlines of the American WTO strategy may be emerging.

''They are going to use any weapon that will allow them to win,'' he said, explaining that Washington may work within the system when it wants to and disregard the rules when it needs to.

But that raises an important question for the WTO's future: can an organization designed to create a level-playing field in world trade survive when the world's top economy refuses to be bound by the rules?

Edward Alden, a trade policy specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that March 8 – the day the steel and aluminium tariffs were announced – was ''The Day the WTO Died.''

While the details surrounding the tariffs, including exemptions for US allies, remain muddy, Alden's underlying argument about the threat still applies.