Emerging eruptions

HAWAII’S Kilauea volcano erupted early Thursday, tossing boulders hundreds of feet and sending a plume of ash about 30,000 feet into the predawn sky. Kilauea is the site of the world’s longest ongoing eruption, one that has oozed lava since 1983. But in recent weeks, the volcano has become particularly restless.

Just as restless as recent events that have worried a number of Filipinos. The Supreme Court decision (8 vs 6, where 5 of the 8 testified in Congressional impeachment proceedings and yet did not Inhibit from the Court deliberations) on the quo warranto seen by many as a shortcut to remove a chief justice labelled as an “enemy” by President Rodrigo Duterte. Many believe that the only way to remove an impeachable official is by impeachment. In finding and using the quo warranto alternative, the government has weakened the democratic institutions and what makes it sadder is that some justices have allowed their personal feelings to get the better of their judgment.

The House approved HB 7376, an “Act Strengthening the Office of the Solicitor General,” which abolished the Presidential Commission on Good Government and transferred its functions to the OSG. Interestingly, the passage came shortly after the Solicitor General won his case of quo warranto against the chief justice in the Supreme Court but I am sure it was not a reward. Justice Secretary Menardo Guevarra has voiced his objection to the move.

*** International events (US departure from the Iran deal, looming trade war between US and China, continuing uncertainty in the Korean peninsula) have conspired to derail the TRAIN, the best tax reform package in decades. Unfortunately, rising world commodity prices, especially oil, coupled with increased excise taxes have inflicted a heavy burden on the Filipino consumers. There are fewer jeepneys plying their route due to higher fuel prices without increases in jeepney fares. The modernization of this sector is also affected by lower earnings, ergo lower savings to afford the modern vehicles. Taxi drivers have stopped offering their services with a number opting to leave the cities for the countryside, citing the higher costs of urban living.

Inflation has gone up to levels not imagined earlier. Despite assurances that this will in the medium term recede, one has to accept the reality of its present impact on the Filipino consumer. This is happening as parents begin to enroll their children, necessitating more funds for tuition, books, school supplies, etc. The revenues raised from TRAIN 1 in the first quarter which exceeded expectations could be a good source for temporary relief for the Filipino consumer. The challenge for the Duterte administration is whether the bureaucracy is geared to speedily provide the funds to the right recipients.

If that was not enough, the sweltering summer heat is rapidly drying up the water reserviors threatening water supply in Metro Manila and the environs. I had in a previous column suggested a determined effort at water conservation and the elimination of water wastage but I did not see government take up the challenge. Now we are experiencing low water pressures at certain hours; in Pampanga, I am told, you get water drops in the evening.

The issues get complicated when the President seems to imply that his continued stay in office will be assured by the help of a foreign government, China. It raises questions on whether the shift to an Independent foreign stance, away from long-time ally the United States of America was not to protect the national sovereignty but to ensure the President’s hold on political power. All that kowtowing to China is now making sense but not in a manner favorable to President Duterte.

With so many of these issues coming to a broil, we may expect more emerging eruptions. In the case of Kilauea, the researchers are scouting data from Kilauea’s extensive monitoring network – of tiltmeters, seismometers, and ground and aerial gas detectors – in the hope of predicting phreatic eruptions.

It may be good for the Duterte adminstration to do likewise with all these emerging events that may lead to a catastrophic eruption!