Summits’ winner: Xi Jinping
THE world witnessed three summits in the last two weeks – Canada’s 44th G7 Summit, China’s Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Singapore Summit of the United States of America and North Korea. Contrary to the tweeting and drum beating of US President Donald Trump and his rabid supporters, he is not the winner; Chinese President Xi Jinping is.
The G7 Summit which some labelled G6 +1, highlighting the differences in the points of view of US President Trump and the other leaders ended acrimoniously as the United States refused to sign the joint communique, with Trump objecting to comments by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the summit host. The joint statement would have indicated agreement of all seven nations in areas of trade, Iran, and climate change and had been crafted to accommodate the concerns of all members. President Trump and his senior officials were concerned that Prime Minister Trudeau’s statements after the summit – we will not be pushed around; Trump’s decision to invoke national security concerns to impose tariffs on aluminium and steel is insulting to Canadian war veterans who had fought alongside US allies; we move forward with retaliatory measures on July 1 – would affect President Trump’s leverage as he proceeded to the Singapore Summit with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un.
In sharp contrast, the SOC Summit convened by Chinese President Xi Jinping and attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pakistani President Mamnoon Hussain, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Talik President Emomali Rahmon, Uzbek President Shavkar Mirziyoyev, and Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov (Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, and Mongolia have SCO observer status) was a picture of unity and friendship. The main political document signed by the participants was the Qingdao Declaration, which reflects the consolidated approaches of the SCO member states regarding the current issues of regional and global politics, laying out a common vision for the further development of multifaceted cooperation within SCO. An Action Plan for 2018-2022 was adopted to implement the Treaty on Long-term Good- Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation between the SCO Member States and the SCO Member States Program on Cooperation in Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism for 2019-2021. The leaders also approved the Anti-Drug Strategy of the SCO member states until 2023 (maybe the Duterte administration should consider joining SCO) and 20 more joint documents. The Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid run by the Communist Party’s the People’s Daily, noted that unlike the G7 which ended in disarray, the SCO Summit was full of enthusiasm and ambition, because of “mutual respect, equality, consultation, respect for cultural diversity, and pursuit of common development which echoes the theme of the era, in which unilateralism can hardly prevail.” Kudos to Chinese President Xi Jinping for chairing a productive summit. Although it can be said he was fortunate, US President Trump was not in attendance.
The much-anticipated Singapore Summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had President Trump in his best behavior, heaping praises on Kim, “great negotiator, talented leader,” putting aside his nasty characterization in previous speeches and tweets. Interesting, Kim kept his remarks focused on not allowing the past to stop the present and giving generously of his smiles but not going back on his harsh statements about Trump. While most analysts focus on the great benefits that the signed agreement gave North Korea while the US only got a promise for denuclearization without verifiable and scheduled monitoring which were contained in previous US and North Korea agreements that North Korea did not follow, to me the bigger winner is China and its president (for life, possible under the amendments to the Chinese Constitution). Denuclearization means North Korea, South Korea and the US removing a threat not just to North Korea but also to China. The agreement while maintains sanctions against North Korea could immediately lead to lax enforcement by China citing the new atmosphere of friendliness. China may even move for the partial lifting of sanctions in the United Nations as a gesture of goodwill. The fact that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo immediately visited South Korea, and China to brief the leaders on the summit reflects the importance of China, stemming from the dependence of North Korea on it. The influence of China was clear – Kim visiting Beijing before the Singapore Summit (getting advice from Big Brother?); arriving in Singapore in a Chinese plane and using a route over China airspace most of the time (indicating that only China could assure his safety?). And if we are to believe some quarters that President Trump’s decision to stop the “war games” could have been suggested in one of his phone conversations with President Xi Jinping, then China’s influence may not just be on Kim but also on Trump.
Moving forward, without China’s continuing influence on North Korean leader Kim (behind the scenes), the Singapore Summit agreement may fall apart just as previous US-North Korea accords did. For President Donald Trump to claim a “legacy,” he needs the Chinese leader. That’s why I consider Xi Jinping as the winner of the Summits!