Recent surveys may surprise us
AS we near the two-year mark of the Duterte administration , more people are looking beyond his qualities as a man and as president, but more at the results of his government’s efforts and how they are appreciated by the people.
These are better determined through surveys, since they obtain facts that are distilled beyond the usual political noise that tends to conflate perceptions, and can verify claims tossed about in media.
Two vital surveys have recently been released that paint a picture of government that may run against the perception held (or read) by many.
The first is the Social Weather Stations Survey on crime victimization released last June 21, showing 6.1% of families losing property to theft and similar crimes within the past 6 months. This is 1.0 point below the 7.1% in December, 2017. The survey also found 0.6% of families with members affected by physical violence within the past six months.This is 0.2 point below the 0.8% similar to the 0.6% in June 2017.
These figures on crime victimization are generally lower than those of previous governments, which ask people about whether they have been victimized by crime. What they do show, is a consistent trend in the lowering of criminality at the community level, which is appreciated by the majority of Filipinos.
Some believe this survey shows a more accurate picture compared with police statistics, since many crimes, especially petty thievery go unreported. This tends to show a more secure and peaceful life in many of our communities.
Of course, there will always be claims to the contrary in actual situations. The results do not show zero crime after all.
Another is the Pahayag Online Poll of Balance Luzon by Publicus Asia, showing 77% of respondents affirming their satisfaction with the general direction of the country their satisfaction. While South Luzon and Bicol show dissatisfaction, majorities in other regions like North and Central Luzon see a better economic outlook. This survey was done 5 months after the imposition of the TRAIN Law that government detractors and unscrupolous businesspeople blame for the rise in commodity prices and inflation. This is significant because unlike other regions, Balance Luzon is believed to be the collection of rural communities most exposed to national media.
These results are a worry for the opposition, since the shrill voices lent more attention to their own faults when they were in power. The case of Leila de Lima and Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno come into mind. Sereno, for one, returned the P5 million bulletproof vehicle flagged by COA, while de Lima remains under arrest for things she allegedly did as Justice Secretary. Selling them as martyrs to voters may be tough.
The more their supporters harp on their innocence and use their situations for their political benefit, the lower their credibility. As election fever strikes, this credibility gap will prove disastrous, as their popularity, sincerity and integrity will be tested. Gathering support, backers, and resources for the elections will not be easy. When the facts come out, the votes may not come their way.
As we now live in the 24/7 world of online media, news and information travels fast and deep. It is now easier to mine facts, and the truth is that facts defeat perception. In today’s world where media can be fact-checked and verified, more facts will eventually emerge after the twisted statements are conflated and the data is parsed.
Being from Mindanao we were always programmed to view the perception of the largely Manila media with a grain, no, a spoon of salt. Take for instance the long held perception that Mindanao is a hotbed of crime and violence. Real numbers do not show that.
However, some irresponsible media practitioners and their equally irresponsible editors have allowed this perception to be programmed in the minds of their readers, such that any news worth reporting on the island needs to be violent to deserve attention.
The numbers may surprise many, and perhaps, reveal the sense that the results hoped for may be happening on the ground. What these surveys show is a continuing desire for government to create deep meaningful impact in their lives, and not just serve as fodder for pundits.
The good thing is that many people now have a better appetite for statistical data and economic indicators than before. A major media outlet has come out with mini features on economic data, showing graphs and other information that previously, were considered too complicated to show to the mass audience. This heightened interest is a good sign, and is necessary to ensure meaningful participation in the process of governance, informing free expression and making democracy work.
Unfortunately for the opposition, their main political collateral to achieve victory in the 2019 polls will be the perception that, contrary to what this data shows, the last two years under Duterte have been hell for the majority of voters. Unfortunately for them, the surveys do not show that. They have been throwing their perceptions around their echo chambers too long to comfort themselves and removed themselves from fact.
Nonetheless, there are those still not satisfied with these results. There is surely much more to be done. After all, there is still the inequality challenge between the northern and southern regions of the country that needs to be surmounted, that I wrote about in last week’s column. The federalism project will not succeed if inequality remains at the levels shown in the 2015 Family Income and Expenditure Survey.
Unlike past governments, this administration will not gloat too much, and instead will say that more needs to be done. We hold them to that and continue to monitor developments.