OPEC forecasts global oil prices to go down

Rising crude oil inventories and increased output in the US could push oil prices down in the coming weeks, an internal Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) report said.

A coming "seasonal scale back in refinery demand... could result in oil stock builds," said an internal market report, which was circulated late Thursday within the OPEC and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The buildup, "amid the upward trend in US crude oil production, could be a bearish factor for oil prices in the coming few weeks," the report said.

OPEC's assessment came as Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell below the $80-a-barrel threshold for the first time in nearly a month on Thursday, after data showed an unexpected rise in US inventories. Late Thursday afternoon, light, sweet crude for November delivery was 0.9% lower at $69.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude was 0.3% lower at $79.78 a barrel.

At a meeting last month, the cartel and its allies debated how much they should open up their spigots to make up for Iranian oil exports, which will fall under a US ban next month.

But while Saudi Arabia and Russia have boosted output, some OPEC officials are worried about a global oil surplus.

The US Energy Information Administration said Monday it expects American tight-oil production to rise by 98,000 barrels a day from October to November.

The planned maintenance of Russian refineries could hit oil prices charged by Moscow and its competitors in Europe in particular, the OPEC report said.

Meanwhile, revisions to global economic forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, fueled by trade disputes between the US and its partners, "cast more uncertainty over oil demand growth in 2019," the document said. (WSJ)