Things will be tough for the opposition

AS the campaign period for the 2019 elections nears, thoughts turn to the opposition and its chances of winning important Senate seats. Made up of relatively unknown personalities save for a few traditional politicians, the opposition slate faces a tough climb to victory.

For the first month of the 90- day campaign, we expect the opposition’s point people to try to introduce their candidates and generate the important name recall needed for victory. This alone takes a lot of effort, considering that old and familiar names are leading in pre-election surveys.

With a small support base among local politicians, we cannot expect significant campaign sorties for them except in major cities. A lot of time and resources will be needed to do sorties and shake hands, something they don’t have.

These basic challenges that are true to most senatorial aspirants are magnified by particular odds that work against them in particular:

First of all, the opposition was absent in policy debates and legislative milestones that mattered to most Filipinos, such as the legislation on streamlined passport and driver’s license applications, free state college education, and Build Build Build and the TRAIN Law.

Concentrating their exposure on opposing the President’s personality rather than his policies kept them out of the loop of things that mattered.

Worse, the most vocal members of the opposition had to contend with the wheels of justice grinding against them as they try to deal with legal challenges based on their past activities.

This has affected the opposition’s credibility. The decision of some of them not to pursue senatorial bids, and let go of the yellow political campaign color says much.

Secondly, the financial resources the opposition needs may no longer be as available. Thus, in recent senatorial surveys, only one of their candidates seems to have a real chance of winning. Winnability is a major consideration for fundraising.

Third, the opposition is deeply divided, from conservative religious groups to factions among the feminists and the remnants of the Philippine left. This cannot enable a coherent legislative program, much less a concerted campaign. Their negative campaign against the President as their basis of unity is something that cannot secure enough votes.

Fourth, the focus of their concerted attacks, the President, has become more popular, and of late, impervious to attacks on his reputation based on the latest trust and satisfaction surveys done after many controversial statements on religion, the arrest of Senator Antonio Trillanes, and even high commodity prices that many pundits believed would turn the tables of popularity in the opposition’s favor.

Despite the metric tons of negative publicity and opinions thrown his way, he remains a very popular President, retaining his “very good” trust and satisfaction ratings, bouncing back from a small slump last June. In addition, 3 out of 4 Filipinos believe that the country is in the right direction. We just need to look at the September results of the Social Weather Stations (www.sws. org) to verify.

On the other hand, the opposition’s voice in the person of Vice President Leni Robredo has trust and satisfaction ratings that failed to soar as hoped, falling even two points to remain at the same level.

With these rather surprising results, the emerging political and public opinion shows that people will not simply support an image being projected – they demand results from governance and are willing to cast their lot with leaders who can deliver. Even the more traditional political forces in Congress and in local governments were not swayed – most remain with the Presidents “supermajority.”

In President Duterte’s case, it seems that the programs instituted in the last two and a half years overshadowed whatever issues are raised against him, and cast a shadow on the opposition’s chances. His political base has been hardened by the opposition’s attacks, his popularity solidified.

What these last two and a half years teach us is that people are taking a longer view on their assessment of government and the things it does rather than what its personalities say. Seems like the opposition missed this boat.

The old saying is true: Talk is cheap and achievements speak louder than words. For reactions: