Taking stock as 2018 ends
SOON,
our current year will slide into 2019 in a continuous flow of events. The new year will take over and carry the impact of the old year into the new. We thus have to consider what 2019 may hold for us, from the starting prism of the 2018 developments.
The national budget.
The 2019 budget to date remains an approved but unsigned bill, held captive by a dispute on whether or not it is a bill that can now be sent to the President for approval. The problem arose as the House, after the bill had passed the Senate, withdrew its previous approval.
At the center of the dispute is the continued existence of the Road Board previously adjudged by both Houses to be a failure and a potential focal point for corruption. In 2019, the road tax the Board manages would amount to P45 billion – the third biggest after the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Bureau of Customs collections.
Arrayed in the budget dispute are the Senate and the Executive who now want the bill passed into law, against the opposing House of Representatives.
The nation, of course, will not be paralyzed if no new budget law is passed; the 2018 budget law will simply be deemed reenacted. The Budget Secretary though has warned of the adverse economic consequences of a reenacted budget. Without the administration’s approved programs and projects for 2019, future economic growth could be retarded while employment would suffer in terms of job cuts and deferred government salary/ benefit increases.
The feared consequences are dire for a developing country like the Philippines whose incidence of poverty is still very high. A quarter of our population of more than 105 million people still live in extreme poverty. While substantial progress has been made in the past, much still needs to be done to maintain past momentum and create lasting impact. These goals cannot be achieved without continuing focus and the budget that this focus will require.
Poverty. Sovereignty and peace and order issues.
Not to be forgotten in 2019 is the country’s West Philippine Sea problem, a territorial integrity issue with China and a potential trigger for Big Power confrontation at our front door. The President has deftly undertaken a very fine balancing act in 2018 in dealing with the big powers, while seeking at the same time to keep the country’s sovereign integrity intact.
The coming 2019 should see the government keenly watching the international scene and preparing appropriate responses, while also minding our NPA, Moro separatists, and terrorism problems that in themselves could threaten our internal stability. No president has faced these external and internal threats simultaneously in the past.
The May 2019 elections.
Obscured for now by the Christmas holidays is the midterm election of May, 2019, the half-way point in the President’s term and the opportunity for the people to judge his performance. This election can potentially determine our governance directions for the rest of the presidential term.
Individually for the candidates, the election is a big expense item that must somehow be funded from whatever available sources there might be. Our lessons from the 2010, 2013, and 2016 elections as well as our DAP and PDAF experiences leave us no choice but to be ever vigilant, both in safeguarding our elections and in guarding the national coffers.
2018 was the judiciary’s troubled year as it wrestled with leadership issues. With a new leadership and its promises of reforms, 2019 could be its opportunity to prove its effectiveness. For the first time in quite a while, the whole judiciary appears ready to positively respond.
Other than system reforms, the judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court, will meet many critical adjudicative challenges in 2019. These cases do not merely embody legal and constitutional issues; they carry profound impact on the nation’s political, economic and social life.
Our withdrawal from the International Court of Justice, as well as the Bangsamoro Law petition recently brought before the Court, present to the Court novel constitutional issues. The extension of martial law could likewise soon be questioned on constitutional grounds. Election-related issues will also soon arise. But before then, the Marcos v. Robredo vicepresidential election protest cries out for decision.
Positively viewed, the rulings on these cases may provide the nation with clear indicators on whether the present Constitution is still responsive to national needs, or whether the time has come for its revision or
The judiciary.
reform. Even now, we should already know that the country could be imperiled by delay in protests involving our highest offices.
Constitutional reform efforts.
Constitutional reform efforts themselves currently languish in limbo; instead of simply responding to the draft the President’s constitutional commission prepared, the House of Representatives has come out with its own draft different in significant respects from the commission’s draft.
In response, the Senate – whose own existence the proposed reforms threaten – has indicated its outright rejection of the House-prepared draft. Thus, a potential deadlock already looms even before Congress can take off as a constituent assembly.
Should the country now consider the constitutional convention mode?
Despite avowed concerted efforts on corruption, the problem does not appear to have significantly abated. One reason perhaps is the high loot/low risk reality that some perceive, particularly for the corrupt in high offices.
Undeniably, despite clear Supreme Court pronouncements, no significant headway has transpired in pursuing the liable parties in the DAP and PDAF scandals. The major actors – former President Aquino and former Budget Secretary Butch Abad – remain virtually untouched; only the minor players have so far been held accountable.
The nation therefore cannot but ask: is the government serious in combatting corruption against all parties irrespective of rank?
While 2018 leaves us with a host of problems, I do not believe that the Philippines is a “sinking ship” as one commentator has suggested. President Duterte is unquestionably our duly elected President till 2022. While he has an unusual management style and a predilection for street language and uncommon comments, he acts with deliberation in charting our national plans and in responding to our problems.
That his approaches are unusual should not be taken against him as the problems the nation faces call for novel approaches. His mindset for commonsensical solutions and capacity to adapt, balanced by his sense of history, identity, love of country and belief in our destiny, may just be the traits the nation needs in these challenging times.
Corruption. A sinking ship?