‘Kammuri’ may dampen SEAG, likely to enter PAR this weekend

Tropical cyclone “Kammuri” may dampen the Southeast Asian (SEA) Games events next week, as the weather disturbance further intensified into a typhoon ahead of its entry into the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) this weekend.

Based on the latest available data, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) estimated the location of Kammuri at 1,425 kilometers (km) east of Visayas around 3 p.m. Thursday.

From a severe tropical storm, Kammuri intensified into a typhoon with maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 kilometers per hour (kph) and gustiness of up to 160 kph.

The weather disturbance is moving slowly northwestward at 10 kph.

Weather specialist Raymond Ordinario said Kammuri will likely enter the PAR by Sat

urday or Sunday and will be called by its local name “Tisoy.”

Should it maintain its current track, Ordinario said Kammuri could make landfall over Bicol Region by Tuesday, cross Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, and Quezon) then exit the landmass through Bataan by Wednesday.

PAGASA is also looking into a possible change in the cyclone’s current track. But even if Kammuri recurves north, a landfall is still likely over Southern or Central Luzon.

Ordinario said possible “landfall point is from Bicol Region up to Aurora province.”

He advised the public to prepare for the approaching weather disturbance as it may affect most of Luzon, including the venues of the SEA Games in Metro Manila, and Central and Southern Luzon.

Kammuri, so far, has a diameter of 600 kilometers and could also bring rains over Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, and Visayas.

By Friday morning, Kammuri will be 1,545 km east of Southern Luzon, and 1,415 km east of Southern Luzon by Saturday morning. It will be 1,005 km east of Southern Luzon by Sunday morning.

Tropical cyclone warning Signal No. 1 may be raised over the eastern

Bicol Region-Eastern Samar area on Sunday.

Ordinario said the outer rainband of Kammuri may start to bring some scattered moderate to heavy rains over Bicol-Eastern Visayas by Monday. By this time, the cyclone will be 465 km east of Virac, Catanduanes.

It will be 20 km east of Virac by Tuesday.

From Tuesday until Wednesday, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Southern Luzon and Bicol Region may experience frequent heavy rains due to Kammuri, while Northern Luzon will have occasional to frequent heavy rains due to the interaction of the typhoon with the tail-end of a cold front.

He said rains will gradually weaken by Thursday, except for areas in extreme Northern Luzon due to the cold front.

Rains from Kammuri may be good news for the rain-parched Angat Dam as the cyclone could bring 200 millimeters to 300 millimeters of rainfall over the Bulacan watershed, if the cyclone’s current track is maintained.

Hydrologist Richard Orendain said a 200-300 mm of rainfall could increase the dam’s level by 9 meters. As of Thursday, the level of Angat Dam was 188.10 meters, almost 22 meters short of its desired 210-meter level.