Covid-19 to end early next year, study says

Or is it too soon to tell?

Where are you off to after the pandemic? Who are you seeing first? While most of us are itching to have a (decent) haircut, meet up with friends, and just enjoy time outdoors, we also understand that to flatten the curve, we have to stay home. But as we learn how to trim our own hair, arrange virtual hangouts with friends, and find ways to enjoy our time indoors (ube cheese

pandesal, anyone?), most of us have also wondered, when will this end? Well, you might be outdoors sooner than you think, a study finds.

The Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) has recently released an analysis predicting when Covid-19 will end. It based its predictions on artificial intelligence technology, predictive monitoring, and information from Our World In Data, a non-profit research organization and online publication. According to a paper by Jianxi Luo of SUTD explaining its method and caution, predictive monitoring makes use of the SIR (specific-infected-recovered) model regressed with daily updated data from Our World In Data. Because a pandemic has a life cycle that accelerates, peaks, de-accelerates, and ends, this type of monitoring aims to identify where countries are in the cycle and predicts the date it will end or the date when 97 percent or 99 percent of total cases have been reached. Knowing this may somehow help countries and decision-makers gain more insight on their current situation.

But then again, while these predictions are backed up with actual data, a lot of factors should still be taken into consideration before making a decision on lifting or easing quarantine measures. Luo indicates that, for one, countries should look at predictive monitoring of several other countries as well because of travel and trade as factors of movement. Another reason is that these projections are more accurate on end dates when actual data is past the peak of the curve as opposed to those with actual data where numbers are still on the rise.

Moreover, this is highly dependent on data submitted by other countries, and their ways of measurement vary. This is why regular monitoring and updating of data is important to analyze the closest possible range for end dates. Based on actual data, as of this writing, SUTD has projected that globally, the virus

will end around January next year. It also has predictions for other countries, depending on data. Countries such as Singapore, Spain, Italy have decreasing numbers of infections, so the pandemic may end in these countries sooner, in July, August, and October, respectively. On the other hand, Brazil is about to reach its peak and there the pandemic is projected to end around November. Some websites have reported an earlier projection of the end of the pandemic for the Philippines in July, however, since the SUTD is always being updated it didn’t include the Philippines in its current analysis as of this writing.

Because the number of cases changes and government policies change along with it too, only time will tell when exactly the pandemic will end. Until we fully eradicate the disease, our lives may never go back to how it was. Strict cleanliness, social distancing, and limited outdoor activity may just be the new norm. Not to mention that most businesses have to immediately shift into paperless, cashless, or hands-free transactions, too. Here is hoping for the best of what lies ahead. It may seem difficult at the beginning, for sure, but we’ll most likely adapt and adjust in time. Humans are resilient, after all.

Because the number of cases changes and government policies change along with it too, only time will tell when exactly the pandemic will end.